Courtesy of NWSFO Tampa, FL - FXUS62 KTBW 060122 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 922 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013 .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... TROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORMED EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH THE CENTER LOCATED 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AT 8 PM. ALTHOUGH WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...THE TROPICAL STORM IS BEHAVING LIKE A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE WEATHER DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS SPREAD ONSHORE FROM TAMPA SOUTH...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OFF THE LEE/CHARLOTTE COUNTY COASTS WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH 00Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWING HELICITY APPROACHING 300. THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE HAVE INDICATED ROTATION WITH WATERSPOUTS LIKELY OCCURRING PERIODICALLY WITH THESE CELLS. IT WILL ONLY TAKE CONVECTION TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ONSHORE AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER CHARLOTEE AND LEE COUNTIES...SPREADING GRADUALLY NORTH OVER SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS CONVECTION MOVES OVER LEE COUNTY FROM THE SOUTH AND LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE TORNADIC THREAT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ANDREA MOVES WEST OF TAMPA AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM SARASOTA NORTH AND 2 TO 4 INCHES SOUTH. WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...TRAINING BANDS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN COULD DEVELOP AND WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ON THURSDAY NORTH OF BOCA GRANDE AND SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FORWARD SPEED AND TURN NORTHEAST. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
Posted on: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 03:44:05 +0000
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