DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK AND KS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MOST NOTABLY BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFYING/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH STRENGTHENING /90+ KT/ AND INCREASINGLY PHASED POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. TO THE EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING/GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES...GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG/CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW. ...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES OR WEAK HEIGHT RISES...THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. BY AFTERNOON...UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY COMMON WITHIN A WARM/MOIST SECTOR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. ADJACENT TO THIS FRONT WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND A SHARPENING/SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. POTENTIALLY AIDED BY AN EASTWARD-MOVING SUBTROPICAL-ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE AND SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES/AMPLE MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WEST TX INTO THE OK PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHWEST KS. PROVIDED SUCH DEVELOPMENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND 45+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADO THREAT GIVEN INCREASINGLY LONG LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BY EVENING. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND THE ADJACENT MO VALLEY AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL RISK WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MONDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
Posted on: Sun, 27 Oct 2013 11:55:21 +0000
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