Dwight Howard, C, Los Angeles Lakers Status on July 1: Unrestricted free agent What he’s selling: A three-time Kia Defensive Player of the Year and five-time rebounding champ, Howard is a seven-time All-Star and, when healthy, the NBA’s most dominant big man. When your down year sees you lead the league in rebounding and still help power the Lakers to a playoff spot in an absolute train wreck of a season, you’re worth every penny a team throws at you. What he’s not saying: He still a putrid free throw shooter and has been known to struggle with decision-making. What he’s worth: A max contract, worth approximately $118 million over five years. Who might be buying: The Lakers have no choice but to beg him to stay, with Kobe Bryant on the mend from Achilles surgery and no one else on the roster capable of carrying the mantle as face of the franchise. Houston, Atlanta and Dallas will launch all-out assaults to sway him. Likely landing spot(s): Lakers. They can offer $30 million more than anyone else. Howard will have a hard time walking away from that kind of cash. Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers Status on July 1: Unrestricted free agent What he’s selling: A six-time All-Star and culture-changer (see Clippers before and after his arrival), Paul is the best in the business at his position, a gold medal winner and an All-Star Game MVP. Toss in his work as a pitch man (Cliff Paul comes with the package) and it’s easy to see why he’s one of the most recognizable players in the game today. What he’s not saying: He has to stay healthy. He’s not getting any younger and he has to get to winning in the postseason, the one glaring hole on his so-far sparkling NBA resume. What he’s worth: A max contract, worth approximately $108 million over five years. Who might be buying: The Clippers are desperate to hold on to him. But they have coaching issues to resolve before that can happen. Houston, Atlanta, Dallas will all make pitches in hopes of prying Paul away. Likely landing spots: Clippers … depending on what happens with Vinny Del Negro. Like Howard, Paul would have to walk away from extra cash if he decides to go elsewhere. But he’s hungry for a title, wherever he goes. Josh Smith, F, Atlanta Hawks Status on July 1: Unrestricted free agent What he’s selling: An absolute game-changer when he’s focused, Smith makes plays only a few players in the league are capable of on a given night. For all the drama and criticism thrown his way, he helped power the Hawks to six straight playoff appearances. What he’s not saying: His shot selection and motor remain issues. After nine years in Atlanta, his next spot needs to be an ideal fit, because this is likely Smith’s last big deal. He has to make sure it’s in a place where he can thrive. What he’s worth: A max contract of approximately $95 million over five years doesn’t fit here, not from the only team (the Hawks) that can offer him that much. But a deal worth approximately $75 million to $85 million over five years is doable. Smith turned down a $47 million extension offer from the Hawks, so he’s obviously looking for a starting salary of $16 million-plus. Who might be buying: The Hawks say they are interested in keeping Smith, at the right price, of course. Houston, Boston, Phoenix, New Orleans, Philadelphia and the Lakers will all investigate this situation. Likely landing spots: Houston is the frontrunner and is the ideal fit and a place Smith would be comfortable. Andrew Bynum, C, Philadelphia 76ers Status on July 1: Unrestricted free agent What he’s selling: A championship-winning big man who has shown flashes of being dominant when healthy. What he’s not saying: Those knees … healthy or not? Spotty decision-making off the court (bowling on bad knees, dancing on bad knees in Spain after not playing a second in Philly this season, etc.) What he’s worth: Even without playing this season in Philly, Bynum should still fetch a contract of approximately $75 million over four years. That’s precisely is what he could earn from a team with cap space that takes a gamble on those shaky knees. Who might be buying: Teams thirsty to become relevant don’t usually allow anything to interfere with their plans when it comes to talented big men. The Sixers have to do their diligence here, if only to see if they can recoup something from the $17 million they wasted on Bynum this season. Houston, Dallas and Atlanta all have cap space to work with and will be landing spots if they strike out with other free-agent targets. Every team with cap space will poke his tires and see if there is anything worth investigating further. Likely landing spot(s): Mavericks. Owner Mark Cuban believe in high-risk projects and Bynum certainly qualifies. David West, F, Indiana Pacers Status on July 1: Unrestricted free agent What he’s selling: A two-time All-Star, West is one of the league’s most underrated players and leaders. An absolute culture-changer in Indiana, his presence in a locker room increases his value. The deeper he leads the Pacers into these playoffs the more valuable he becomes in Indiana and beyond. What he’s not saying: There is no “upside” here … what you see is what you get with West. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it’s a fact. He is already the player he’s going to be for the foreseeable future. What he’s worth: A clear notch below the top-tier free agents, a contract worth approximately $55-60 million over five years is a good place to start. Who might be buying: Pacers. They know better than anyone what West can do for your team, on and off the floor. They cannot afford to lose him at such a critical juncture for the franchise. The Rockets are looking for the right fit at power forward to complete their starting unit. Likely landing spot(s): Pacers. He’s the perfect leader and cornerstone for a franchise rising up the ranks. Al Jefferson, C, Utah Jazz Status on July 1: Unrestricted free agent What he’s selling: An elite scorer at his position, “Big Al” demands double teams in the post that routinely open up the floor for his teammates. He’s also just 28 and in the prime of his career. What he’s not saying: He’s not an elite athlete at his position and is only going to fit with certain teams. If you’re getting up and down the floor, he might not be your man. And he’s not a great defender or shot blocker for his size. What he’s worth: A new contract in the $70 million range over four or five years is investing on the high side, but a sound investment for a player who has been productive everywhere he’s been. Who might be buying: If Atlanta, Houston and Dallas strike out on their top targets he could definitely be an option. The Washington Wizards and New Orleans Pelicans (near his native Mississippi) are also interesting options. Likely landing spot(s): The Wizards or Hawks. Manu Ginobili, G, San Antonio Spurs Status on July 1: Unrestricted free agent What he’s selling: The man’s a winner and a champion and has done it all over the globe in the professional ranks and in international play. Even at this advanced stage of his career, he gets it done (as he did in that double-overtime epic Game 1 win in the Western Conference semifinals against the Golden State Warriors). What he’s not saying: He’s not getting any younger and he has the wear and tear on his body to offer up as proof. The man nicknamed “El Contusion” by former teammate and current NBA TV analyst Brent Barry, Ginobili been a pro since 1995 and has some serious mileage under his belt. He’s an injury risk at a well-worn 35. What he’s worth: He’s no longer in the $14 million a year range, but a shorter-term deal (three years, $28 million) is realistic. Who might be buying: The Spurs, if they think their core has enough left in the tank for two or three more years. The Cavaliers need quality veterans to support their youth movement and Manu would be a great mentor for Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters and others. Likely landing spot(s): Spurs. It’s hard to imagine Ginobili finishing his career anywhere else. Andre Iguodala, G/F, Denver Nuggets Status on July 1: Unrestricted free agent (Early Termination Option ) What he’s selling: An All-Star and Olympic gold medalist, Iguodala proved this season that his numbers in Philadelphia translate to the altitude and the Western Conference in his lone season in Denver. A versatile swingman and excellent defender, Iguodala plays consistently at the highest level. He played great (18.0 ppg on 50 percent shooting) in the Nuggets’ six playoff games. What he’s not saying: Miscast in Philly as a No. 1 option in his final two seasons there, he’s better as a No. 3 on a top-tier team. What he’s worth: A five-year deal at approximately $75 million is the going rate for a player of Iguodala’s caliber and character. Who might be buying: The Nuggets want to keep him but the Hawks have a need at his position and will spend whatever it takes to keep him. The Jazz and Hawks also have a need for player whose versatility and work ethic is his trademark. Likely landing spot(s): Nuggets. Paul Millsap, F, Utah Jazz Status on July 1: Unrestricted free agent What he’s selling: Arguably the most underrated player at any position in the entire league, Millsap is a no-nonsense worker bee whose production and consistency has never been questioned. He earned his stripes as an energy guy off the bench early in his career before becoming a frontcourt staple for the Jazz. What he’s not saying: He’s always going to be a bit undersized against some of the bigger power forwards and centers he has to deal with around the league. The Jazz are going to go younger with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter in place of Millsap and Al Jefferson for a fraction of the price. What he’s worth: A five-year, $45 million deal is a slight raise and the multi-year deal Millsap is looking for, anything more is a stretch. Who might be buying: Dallas, Atlanta, Houston have to put him on their list of second tier options. But he’s an ideal fit in a place like San Antonio, where system guys thrive. The Pacers would have to take a look as well if West gets a huge offer from someone else. Likely landing spot(s): Atlanta. A productive grinder who will be great in the locker room and provide stability on the court. Monta Ellis, G, Milwaukee Bucks Status on July 1: Unrestricted free agent (Early Termination Option) What he’s selling: Ellis is an elite scorer for his position, even if he is a bit undersized at shooting guard. He has proven himself capable of producing within whatever system and alongside whatever running mates a team throws at him. He showed this season that he could play his game for a playoff team and did it with another volume scorer (Brandon Jennings) starting in the same backcourt. What he’s not saying: He’s a career 46 percent shooter and has averaged more turnovers (2.8) during his career than you want from a player who doesn’t facilitate (career 4.7 assists) any better than he does. He’s not a franchise player, but wants to be paid like one. What he’s worth: Anything in the $50-55 million range will get the attention of Ellis, an eight-year vet with a younger man’s bounce in his game. Who might be buying: An elite team in need of a specialist who might fit better as a Jamal Crawford-style sixth man will have to take a hard look at the analytics and see if Ellis is passes the cost-analysis test. The Kings, Jazz, Bobcats and Hawks all have to poke around as well. Likely landing spot(s): Dallas needs firepower around Dirk Nowitzki and a replacement for the role Jason Terry vacated last summer.
Posted on: Sat, 22 Jun 2013 19:51:35 +0000
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