Election analysis: Any student of politics in the south is familiar with this concept of Southern Exceptionalism. I believe the South is a place unique unlike any other, grandeur in ways that other regions cannot match. The foundation of my politics was grounded in the Souths exceptionalism in politics. What do I mean by Southern Exceptionalism? Quite simple we have always been the exception to political rules, Alabama being one of the strongest bastions of such. The Solid South of the Democratic Party, friends and neighbors voting patterns, even split-tickets between national Republicans and national Democrats. This has always been proof that the South was an outlier in national politics. Folks, Southern Exceptionalism in politics is dead. Were like everyone else, now. Does Alabama have a conservative bend? Absolutely. Do Republicans enjoy a natural advantage? Absolutely. Are there logistical obstacles that make Democrats unlikely to win competitive elections? Absolutely. But the state of Alabama bucked away from Republican vote trending in both 2006 and 2008 in numerous state and local races. Since 2010 we have ticked the other way. Why is that? Simple. Alabamas politics is now governed by the effect of midterm election cycles. The states Republicans and their campaign ads werent lying when they said that Obama was on the ballot. He was there, haunting it like a phantom and had Mitt Romney won in 2012, much of the state would be voting against him and many Democrats that lost by 5-7% would have won last night. It is that simple. Southern Exceptionalism also ticks into an area that many voters find repulsive. Big money is bemoaned nearly universally by all voters and for years Alabama would elect friends and neighbors over the interests of big money. Those days are over, sadly. Big money proved its strength last night. Candidates that were polling 4%+ behind a month before the election would turn around and win those very same elections after a media blitz, the best that money could buy. The likelihood of these campaigns turning over their internal polling for me to release to prove this is unlikely, but I do have one good example: Joe Hubbard lost last night, but he came within swinging distance of his candidate unlike practically every other Democratic statewide candidate. Hubbard was a freshman legislator and most voters couldnt distinguish between him, the Speaker of the House, and the former AEA chief. But his margin of loss when compared to other Democrats is significant when you recognize the fact he was flushed with donations from the Poarch Creek. Big money may not have won, but it definitely has an undeniable effect. Once the special interests in Montgomery realize that the Supermajority is not perpetual then you will see more two-party competition, unfortunately for the Alabama voter both parties will be much more aligned to Montgomery interests than the local interests. Speaking of the Poarch Creek, they proved their effectiveness last night. In the future gambling as a political issue will be within their domain. A compact is a matter of when, not if. I also mentioned the Speaker of the House. Mike Hubbard will be re-elected as the Speaker of the Alabama House, the choice of Speaker will be made solely within the majority party. Hubbard has delivered unprecedented victories for his parties, his own legal trouble aside they are not going to change captains in the middle of the storm. However, expect a softer, weaker Mike Hubbard in the future. Not that he wont have an axe to grind if he survives indictment, but once the dust has settled the power he built upon the backs of naive, freshman legislators will be diluted. These freshmen are becoming senior legislators and committee chairs in their own rights. Hubbard will not enjoy the control he had in his own caucus going into the future he will lead, not dictate. I also mentioned the AEA. Teachers are beyond disappointed in last nights election. They are upset, too. Teachers, support staff, and education retirees have been upset for years now and this was the opportunity they hoped could channel some change. They didnt get the change they sought and their organization has endured deep criticism and attacks. Having lost the opportunity to stop their aggressors I believe that education is going to fight internally and that Henry Mabry will be the most likely victim. If Im correct in this prediction then the new leader of AEA and their vision will be one of the most impactful events to hit state politics for some time. A new dichotomy: While I predict Alabama becoming very susceptible to national tides there is going to be a new settling of the parties. Rural areas are going to lose what long-time Democrats they have left. Expect local office holders to begin switching parties. Municipal and urban areas are going to become Democratic stronghold in areas they are not already. Expect non-partisan offices to suddenly elect known Democratic personalities. There will be less split-tickets in Alabama as a result. You will either live in a blue or a red county. Future partisan elections will be determined in the primaries. General elections, except for the few competitive ones will consist of a pre-declared winner versus a sacrificial lamb. North Alabama (and I mean bordering Tennessee, north) will be the last hold out of split-ticket elections. I expect this to end within a few cycles. Next Governor: Somewhere tonight Walt Maddox of Tuscaloosa is debating whether or not to succeed Robert Bentley as the Tuscaloosa Republican who can stroll into the Governors office with a smile. If he makes that decision you can bet your bottom dollar on it. That is my full impact analysis of the 2014 Election. Questions, comments, concerns?
Posted on: Wed, 05 Nov 2014 23:33:59 +0000
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