FXUS62 KFFC 300617 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 217 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014/ .UPDATE... MAINLY JUST TRIED TO TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS JUST S OF WILCOX AND TELFAIR COUNTIES FIRED UP ON AN OUTFLOW AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING TO FAR INTO THE CWA. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL. BDL && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014/ .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SHORT TERM MODELS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AFTER A LONG...DRY WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COASTLINE...BUT AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE WILL EXPOSE THE REGION TO PERTURBATIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. FOR NOW...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS LOOKS TO DAMPEN SOMEWHAT AS IT TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS POSITIONING SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED ENERGY OUTSIDE THE CWA. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 1 AND 10 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS APPEAR TO CONTINUE THE TREND ON BACKING OFF ON EXTENDED PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH COVERAGE BEING SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED LIKELY WORDING WITH THE POPS...BUT HAVE CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PWS...AND ALTHOUGH QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE 0.5 INCHES OR LESS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. MLCAPES LOOK TO BE MARGINAL...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE HIGH STILL IN PLACE...BUT WITH RAIN IN THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. 31 && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH VORT MAX LINGERING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS VORT MAX IS MORE STRUNG OUT PROVIDING LITTLE LIFT ON THE ECMWF BUT MORE POTENT WITH DISTINCT TROUGH NOTED ON LATEST GFS. REGARDLESS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESIDES AND MID RANGE CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A DISTINCT AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED ON THE ECMWF WHICH COULD LEAD TO REDUCED POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY BUT WILL NEED A FEW MORE RUNS TO CONFIRM BEFORE GETTING FULLY ONBOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION. INTO EARLY AND MID WEEK...THE EURO IS DEFINITELY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BUILD MID AND UPPER RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA AND LIMITING POPS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THIS DRIER SOLUTION AND THE SLIGHTLY WETTER GFS WHICH SUPPRESSES RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHILE STRUNG OUT VORT MAX PROVIDES FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THIS YIELDS GENERALLY LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PORTION. WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE NOT ESPECIALLY BULLISH ON THIS ASPECT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY TREND UPWARD WITH FUTURE RUNS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MID 90S BY TUE OR WED. DEESE/01 && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS FILTERING INTO SOUTHERN SITES...OTHERWISE SOME LOWER END VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z TODAY THEN LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AFTER 00-02Z SUNDAY. WINDS GENERALLY SE TODAY AT 7 KTS OR LESS THEN NEAR SOUTHERLY SHIFT OR JUST WEST OF SOUTH FOR KATL AFTER 02Z WITH GENERALLY CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AT OTHER SITES. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON WINDS AND PRECIP TIMING. HIGH ON ALL ELSE. BAKER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 92 70 91 73 / 30 30 50 20 ATLANTA 90 72 88 72 / 40 40 50 20 BLAIRSVILLE 85 66 83 68 / 40 40 60 30 CARTERSVILLE 91 70 89 71 / 50 50 60 30 COLUMBUS 93 74 92 73 / 50 40 40 10 GAINESVILLE 89 71 87 72 / 40 40 60 30 MACON 94 71 92 73 / 30 30 40 10 ROME 91 70 90 70 / 50 40 60 30 PEACHTREE CITY 90 69 90 71 / 50 40 50 20 VIDALIA 94 73 92 75 / 30 20 40 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31/BDL LONG TERM...DEESE/01 AVIATION...BAKER
Posted on: Sat, 30 Aug 2014 06:17:59 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015