FXUS62 KMLB 030816 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 416 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...OFFSHORE (W/SW) FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER WHICH WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM A BIT SOONER THAN YESTERDAY ESP ALG THE TREASURE COAST. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL STILL DOMINATE GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FL. THE W/SW STEERING FLOW COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY LIGHTNING STORMS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FL PENINSULA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND DOWNBURST WINDS NEAR 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN A FEW STORMS ROUGHLY FROM VOLUSIA TO OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES AS THE WEST COAST BREEZE/ OUTFLOWS INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE AFTN. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH STEERING FLOW TO BRING SOME OF THE STORMS OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES INTO EARLY EVENING. WED-THU...AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THURSDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WELL INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DECENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 40 PERCENT) GENERALLY WEST OF ORLANDO WHERE LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. WITH A MORE NORMAL START TO SEA BREEZE FORMATION...TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL MAX OUT AROUND THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH LOW 90S EXPECTED INLAND. FRI-MON...MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY REMAINING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR. W/SW FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE IN A E/SE SEA BREEZE AT COASTAL TERMINALS (SUA/FPR/VRB/MLB) BETWEEN 16Z-18Z...AND A BIT LATER (BY 20Z) AT DAB. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED STORMS NE ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTN. COLLISION WITH THE EAST COAST BREEZE WILL OCCUR 20Z-24Z AFFECTING DAB/SFB/MCO AND POSSIBLY MLB WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 35-45 KNOTS. && .MARINE... TODAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FL IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD REACHING CENT FL LATE TONIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE (EAST TO SOUTHEAST) EARLY THIS AFTN NEAR THE COAST. LATE AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. WED-SAT...RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE ONSHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH SPEEDS BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2-3 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 92 74 90 73 / 40 20 30 20 MCO 94 75 92 74 / 30 20 30 20 MLB 90 73 89 75 / 40 20 20 20 VRB 90 74 89 75 / 30 20 20 20 LEE 93 75 93 75 / 30 20 40 20 SFB 94 76 93 75 / 40 20 30 20 ORL 94 76 93 75 / 30 20 30 20 FPR 89 73 89 75 / 30 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KELLY LONG TERM....WEITLICH PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Tue, 03 Sep 2013 08:16:36 +0000
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