FXUS62 KMLB 031520 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1020 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013 .DISCUSSION... ..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MID WEEK... ..WINDY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING SURF AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG THE COAST... LARGE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY IS PUSHING A TIGHT SFC PGRAD INTO THE FL PENINSULA. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A +5MB SFC PGRAD BTWN KJAX-KMFL...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING WINDS BTWN 20-25KTS ACCORDING TO GEOSTROPHIC APPROX TABLES. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ARID AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH PWAT VALUES ARND 0.40 AND AN IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THRU THE H85-H50 LYR. SHARP SFC BASED INVERSION AS WELL THAT SHOULD BURN OFF WITHIN THE NEXT HR...ALLOWING THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE N/NE THRU THE DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE ERN CONUS WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT THRU 6PM THIS EVNG FROM OSCEOLA/INDIAN RIVER COUNTY NORTHWARD...SOME GUSTS BTWN 25-30 MPH THIS AFTN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL MONITOR OBS FROM LAKE COUNTY TO SEE IF ADVISORY SHOULD BE EXPANDED WESTWARD. AFTN TEMPS IN THE M70S N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...M/U70S ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAY BREAK THE 80F MARK. STRONG SOUTHWARD LONGSHORE CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES WITH ROUGH SURF DVLPG THIS AFTN. ATLC WATER TEMPS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION... THRU 04/12Z...VFR ALL SITES...N/NE SFC WND G22-27KTS ALL SITES THRU 04/00Z...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060 CSTL SITS AFT 04/00Z. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS FROM THE LCL DATA BUOY/C-MAN NETWORK INDICATE WINDS/SEAS EASILY MEETING CAUTIONARY CRITERIA...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LVLS. HOWEVER...WITH SEAS RUNNING 4-6FT AND DOMINANT PDS BTWN 5-6SEC... OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POOR. FURTHERMORE...BUOY OBS BTWN SAVANNAH AND CAPE HATTERAS ARE IN SOLID ADVISORY CRITERIA. SITUATION WILL ONLY BECOME MORE HAZARDOUS AS THAT ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE LCL ATLC. NO SIG CHANGES TO THE MRNG FCST PACKAGE...MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE EARLY AFTERNOON. NE WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BUILD SEAS FURTHER TO 9-10 FT IN GULF STREAM OFFSHORE. && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW RH BTWN 30-35PCT WILL COMBINE WITH NNE WINDS 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS ARND 25MPH TO GENERATE A FIRE WX CONCERN TODAY. ERC VALUES HIGHEST AROUND METRO ORLANDO AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. RED FLAG WARNING FOR SEMINOLE/ORANGE AND OSCEOLA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BREVARD ERC VALUES HIGH AS WELL...BUT THE NERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SUFFICIENT OCEAN MOISTURE ONSHORE TO KEEP MIN RH VALUES ABV CRITICAL LVLS. EVEN SO... WINDY CONDITIONS WILL STILL POSE A CONCERN FOR FIRE SPREAD. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-ORANGE- OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SPRATT PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 03 Nov 2013 15:20:41 +0000
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