FXUS62 KMLB 041326 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 925 AM EDT SUN AUG 4 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE 12Z/10Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER ALL SHOW WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST 10,000 FEET. WEATHER RADARS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COMING ASHORE THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND MAKING THEIR WAY PAST LEESBURG AND CLERMONT BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT FURTHER EAST AS THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WARM UP AND DESTABILIZE SOME MORE DURING THE MORNING. THE 8AM TO 11 AM GRIDS CAUGHT THIS WEATHER VERY WELL. STORMS SHOULD OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST INTO AREAS ORLANDO WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING UPDATE WILL LOOK AT PRIMARILY THE VARIOUS WIND GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION TODAY-TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT CARRIED OFF DORIAN YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS AS THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO TAP INTO A POCKET OF DRIER AIR CURRENTLY SLIDING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG TODAY...SO THERE WILL BE A LATE DAY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE. EXPECT A LITTLE BIT LATER START AS THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY SUPPRESSES ACTIVITY...WITH STORMS BOTH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW LATE DAY STRONGER STORMS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME OUTFLOW INDUCED ACTIVITY ACROSS N FLORIDA SLIDING INTO LAKE/VOLUSIA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE DELAYED SEABREEZE/ONSET OF CONVECTION. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. MONDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE NRN PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND PREFRONTAL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS BY MID DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING WITH A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF THE CAPE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE TREASURE COAST. GFS SHOWS CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT H2 BUT STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS TO DRIVE DIURNAL ACTIVITY WHICH WILL FOCUS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 93 FOR THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST. TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN THE MID-ATLC COAST AND MID LVL HIGH CENTER OVER TX WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYER FLOW TO BECOME NE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP 30 PCT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND 40 PCT OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES EASILY INLAND. HIGHS UPR 80S/NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND 93 FOR THE INTERIOR. WED...CONTINUED MID LYR NE FLOW AND LOW LVL E/ESE FLOW WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE ATLC MOVING ONSHORE WILL KEEP LOWER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND 30-40 PCT AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. THU-SUN...500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE STATE OVER THE ATLC WITH LOW LVL ESE/SE FLOW CONTINUING LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE BELOW CLIMO LEVELS IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE AT BEST WITH SOME SURGES IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING SHOWERS ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC WITH THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY INLAND SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON AS A DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD CLOSER TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND BY SUNDAY BRINGING HOT WEATHER AND CONTINUED LOWER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER TO MID 90S FOR THE INTERIOR. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR THRU 15Z. ISOLD MVFR SHRA/TSRA MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS REGION AFTER 16Z...IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPMENT ALONG LATE DEVELOPING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE BECOMING SCT AFTER 19Z...WITH MOST ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER 05/02Z. && .MARINE... CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS WERE RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS FROM THE TWO BUOYS 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH TO THE BUOY 42NM EAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE. UPDATE TO THE WIND GRIDS AS NEEDED. PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION TODAY-TONIGHT...PREVAILING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AT BUOY 41009 AND 41012 RUNNING 15-20KTS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A TIGHTER GRADIENT AROUND THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER WINDS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15KTS BY DAYBREAK AND HOLD STEADY AROUND THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BACK WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST...MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARDS. SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE...2-3FEET OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 4FT FAR OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 7 SEC. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAPE. ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW FOR MID WEEK WILL BECOME ESE/SE BY LATE WEEK TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3 FT OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECASTS...WIMMER IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES LONG TERM....VOLKMER PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 04 Aug 2013 13:27:00 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015