FXUS62 KMLB 041940 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 340 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST RAIN FREE THROUGH LATE AFT. HOWEVER TOWARD SUNSET AND INTO THE EVENING ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. ANY LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S TONIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG THE SRN BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST WHERE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. FRI...STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THAT WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE E/SE. BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 TO 30 MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TOMORROW BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY DRY PW VALUES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COAST TO 30-40 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA REMAINS ELONGATED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. PREVAILING BRISK TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS COASTAL AREAS THEN TRANSITIONING INLAND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP BRISK TO FRESH SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL QUICKLY PUSH COASTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS INLAND AND LEAVE THE COASTAL AREAS MOSTLY WEATHER FREE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE MORE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS COMES ASHORE AND MOVES WEST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND CHANCE STORMS AND SHOWERS INLAND LOOK TO BE THE BEST CALL FOR WEEKEND. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOWING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED 850MB OR LOWER THROUGH THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THAT REASON WOULD TEND TO GO WITH A 20 POP AT THE COAST AND A 30/40 INLAND AND LIMIT POP TO AROUND 40 WEST OF ORLANDO. MON-WED...WINDS START BACKING TO THE EAST AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO ELONGATE EAST TO WEST AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) MOVES OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE TUTT LOWERS MONDAYS POPS. RAIN CHANCES REBOUND TUE AND WED AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE RETURN. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOW TO MID 70S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT AT THE COAST MELBOURNE COCOA BEACH SOUTH WHERE MID AND UPPER 70S SHOULD BE OBSERVED. && .AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN GUSTY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR... MAINLY THROUGH 00Z. ALONG THE COAST ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. CHOPPY SEAS 3-5 FEET. FRI-MON...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA OUTER BANKS STRETCHES EAST TO WEST FRIDAY WITH RIDGE REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WARRANT "SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINES. OFFSHORE SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET....3 TO 5 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. RESULTING LONG E-SE FETCH WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A SMALL LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL FOR THE WEEKEND AND INCREASED RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 89 76 90 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 74 92 75 94 / 20 30 20 30 MLB 78 89 79 90 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 77 89 77 89 / 20 30 20 20 LEE 75 92 75 94 / 20 30 20 30 SFB 74 92 75 94 / 20 30 20 30 ORL 74 92 76 93 / 20 30 20 30 FPR 77 88 76 90 / 20 30 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/AVIATION/MARINE...WEITLICH RADAR/IMPACT WX....PENDERGRAST PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Thu, 04 Jul 2013 19:40:10 +0000
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