FXUS62 KMLB 060834 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 434 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...HEAVY RAIN AND TORNADO THREAT TODAY... CURRENT...TS ANDREA HAS IMPROVED ITS APPEARANCE ON IR SAT IMAGERY OVERNIGHT AS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE...WITH SOME ATTEMPT TO WRAP THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... ANDREA IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE N/NE AND HAS STRENGTHENED WITH A DROP IN PRESSURE AND INCREASE IN WINDS. TODAY/TONIGHT...THE FASTER FORWARD MOTION OF TS ANDREA MAY REDUCE THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. STILL...2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES. SO FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING AND SHEARED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS EC FL. 00Z GFS HAS 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES INCREASING UP TO 500 M^2/S^2 (!) ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BY MID DAY SO THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED LATE THIS MORNING AND INCLUDE VOLUSIA COUNTY. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND WHERE SOME SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR FROM BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 80S. FRI-FRI NIGHT... BY DAYBREAK...T.C. ANDREA WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST. MERGER WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID ATLC...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE W/SW THRU THE COLUMN. THE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WRAPPING INTO N FL AS ANDREA LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD...RESULTING IN A DRASTIC REDUCTION IN POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AND A WIDE SPREAD OF PRECIP CHANCES ACRS E CENTRAL FL...L20S N OF I-4...U50S TREASURE COAST. WHILE SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AS ANDREA DEPARTS...NOT CONFIDENT IN THE 40PCT DROP IN POPS FROM 05/12Z TO 06/00Z. MEAN RH VALUES ACRS THE REGION ARE RATHER HIGH...H100-H85 VALUES ARE AOA 70PCT ACRS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH...H85-H50 VALUES AOA 50PCT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WRN GOMEX AND E TX. FURTHERMORE...WHILE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC LIFT WILL LIFT N WITH ANDREA...GFS DOES INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THRU THE H85-H50 LYR...ALLOWING CAPE VALUES TO RECOVER TO OVER 1200 J/KG BTWN 18Z AND 00Z. FURTHERMORE... LCL PGRAD WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A HEALTHY W/SW STEERING FLOW THRU THE H85-H50 LYR. WILL LOWER POPS FROM 60PCT TO 50PCT FROM INDIAN RIVER/OSCEOLA NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECREASING DYNAMIC LIFT AND SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. STEADY SW FLOW WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE L90S...MIN TEMPS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S. SAT-WED... DIURNAL AFTN/EVNG SHRA/TSRA PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND... CONTG INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL TROF LINGERING OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS THROUGH SAT. AS THE TROF WASHES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND... THE RIDGE WILL REPOSITION ITSELF NWD INTO CENTRAL FL. DEEP SWRLY FLOW WILL FAVOR THE ERN PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SAT...WILL BUMP PRECIP CHANCES UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY. BY SUN... PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO CENTRAL FL AND THE LOW/MID LVL STEERING FLOW WEAKENS. TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS OVER THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA AND BLOCKS OUT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION. WEAK WRLY STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR THE ERN PENINSULA FOR PRECIP...BUT FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND WILL NOT PROMOTE RAPID STORM MOTION. POPS AOB 40PCT...MAX/MIN TEMPS WITHIN 5F OF CLIMO AVG. && .AVIATION... EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AS RAINBANDS ASSOCD WITH TS ANDREA LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PERIODS OF IFR CIGS WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS. && .MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS. INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AS TS ANDREA LIFTS N/NE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT AT 8 AM FOR THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY WATERS FOR 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE VOLUSIA LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO 8FT OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS NOT MUCH BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH 15-20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT. FRI-FRI NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THRU THE DAY AS ANDREA LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER...AS PGRAD WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH W/SW BREEZE IN HER WAKE. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY WIND WAVES OVER THE LCL ATLC...3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE...UP TO 7FT IN THE GULF STREAM...DOMINANT PDS AOB 6SEC. SAT-MON...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SAT AS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS N FROM THE FL STRAITS INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. AS THE PGRAD SLACKENS...SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE S/SE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE BY SAT AFTN...THEN 2-3FT AREAWIDE SUN INTO MON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 75 89 73 / 100 60 40 30 MCO 83 75 91 73 / 100 60 50 30 MLB 85 76 88 74 / 90 60 50 30 VRB 85 77 87 74 / 90 60 50 40 LEE 83 74 91 74 / 100 60 40 30 SFB 83 75 93 74 / 100 60 40 30 ORL 83 76 92 74 / 100 60 40 30 FPR 85 77 87 74 / 90 60 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE- OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD- SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA- MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE- OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 AM FOR LAKE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE... OSCEOLA...BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KELLY LONG TERM....BRAGAW PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 08:34:28 +0000
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