FXUS62 KMLB 091817 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 217 PM EDT MON SEP 9 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-TONIGHT...LATE MORNING KXMR SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 700/500MB HAVE ALSO LIMITED CUMULUS GROWTH THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS...GREATEST CHANCES TO SEE A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER LAND...AND THEY ARE NOT GREAT...WILL EXIST FROM SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWARD. WITH THE STEERING FLOW VEERING MORE EASTERLY THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL SHOWERS TO REACH LAND AND MAINLY FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD. THE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FALL TO 5 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...BUT MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. MIN TEMPERATURES L/M70S. TUE-TUE NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST. ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS AS DRIER AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR SOUTH OF VERO BEACH AND NEAR 20 PERCENT NORTHWARD. COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE MORNING WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION WELL INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION... WED-SUN...NOW APPEARS MID/UPPER CYCLONE NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA AS VORTICITY FIELD ELONGATES NORTH/SOUTH AND ENERGY EVENTUALLY BECOMES ENTRAINED NORTHWARD WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH DIGS WELL SOUTH FROM GREAT LAKES TO/OFFSHORE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS TO THE NORTH MID-WEEK RESULTING IN RELAXING OF GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. REDEVELOPMENT OF WEAK RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK...LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TRANSITION BACK TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY MOIST PATTERN WILL OCCUR WED...WITH NEAR CLIMO/SCATTERED POPS RETURNING BY THU. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MOVEMENT FROM COASTAL TO INTERIOR COUNTIES WED/THU...THEN AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS NEARBY FRI/SAT...STORM MOTION LIKELY TO SLOW WITH PROPAGATION ALONG BOUNDARIES DOMINATING. SLOWER MOTION SUGGESTS GREATER CHANCE FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH ACTIVITY SLOW TO TRANSITION INLAND. IN FACT...LIGHT SW STEERING FLOW MAY ENSUE ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN CWA...WITH STORMS BEING STEERED BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN TEMPS...PERSISTING CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .AVIATION...MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS ECFL. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH SHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD BUT IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL AS THEY WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO REALIZE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AFT 10/00Z VFR ALL SITES...HOWEVER ISOLD MVFR SHRAS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST SOUTH FROM THE CAPE. && .MARINE...CURRENT-TUE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. ENE/E WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST. PERSISTENT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL KEEP WAVE PERIODS IN THE 8-9 SECOND RANGE. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PERIODIC SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WEST MOVEMENT...A FEW CELLS MAY MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. WED-SAT...EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN WED TO AOB 10 KT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THU WILL BE REINFORCED ALONG COAST AS SEA BREEZE BUILDS DURING THE DAY. LIGHT SE/S WINDS FRI AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS NEARBY...FILLING IN MORE EASTERLY AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS NEARSHORE. SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE TUE-THU...WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE TO 2 FT OR LESS BY FRI. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 75 88 / 10 20 10 30 MCO 73 90 74 91 / 10 20 10 30 MLB 77 88 77 88 / 20 20 20 30 VRB 75 88 75 88 / 20 20 20 30 LEE 72 91 74 91 / 10 20 10 30 SFB 73 89 74 91 / 10 20 10 30 ORL 74 90 75 91 / 10 20 10 30 FPR 74 87 75 88 / 20 30 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....CRISTALDI PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Mon, 09 Sep 2013 18:17:57 +0000
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