FXUS62 KMLB 101922 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 322 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013 .DISCUSSION... THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND NOW EVEN DAYTIME CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO FADE AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY...WHICH HAS VEERED FLOW MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN SOUTHEAST AND SLOWED BOTH STORM MOTION AND THE INWARD PUSH OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NORTH OF THE CAPE. ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS NORTHWEST OF I-4 THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA OR DIMINISHES ALTOGETHER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. SUNDAY...RARE SUNNY AND DRY AUGUST DAY EXPECTED AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT. THE DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS INTO THE REGION WILL BE COMPLETELY OVER THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL AS LOW AS 1.2-1.3 INCHES...WHICH IS 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF THE 594-595DM RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MEAGER MOISTURE. WITH NO CONVECTION TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 90S. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG THE COAST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH SLIGHT MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD TOWARD WEDNESDAY AS 500MB TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FURTHER NORTH. MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS RAIN CHANCES AT 15-20 PERCENT FOR MONDAY AND THE STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL 20-25 PERCENT ON TUESDAY FAVORING THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE LOW-MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THURSDAY-FRIDAY...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE AXIS SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH INTO LATE WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION WITH POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT. GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NORTH AND WEST OF KDAB-KISM THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS DRY AIR HELPS SUPPRESS RA/TS CHANCES. FEW-SCT040 WITH DAYTIME CU SUN AFTN. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-SUNDAY...RIDGE AXIS ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON HAS VEERED WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THE SAME LOCATION THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON BACKING WINDS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH LEG LATE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. SEAS 2-3 FEET...WITH UP TO 4FT FAR OFFSHORE WITH SMALL EAST SWELL. MON-WED...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BY MID WEEK. PREVAILING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NORTH OF THE CAPE TUES-WED. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS. WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE AROUND 2-3 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 90 73 92 / 0 10 0 20 MCO 75 95 74 94 / 10 10 0 20 MLB 77 90 74 91 / 0 10 10 10 VRB 75 89 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 76 96 75 95 / 10 10 10 20 SFB 76 94 75 94 / 10 10 0 20 ORL 76 94 76 94 / 10 10 0 20 FPR 75 89 74 89 / 10 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....SHARP PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sat, 10 Aug 2013 19:22:13 +0000
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