FXUS64 KHUN 140919 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 419 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .DISCUSSION... WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF/GFS BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. SFC HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER GA/SC WHICH HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO BECOME SE MAINLY WEST OF I65. AS A RESULT A BIG RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOW 30S IN NE AL TO ARND 40 IN NW AL. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MRNG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY THE AFTN AS A CDFNT...NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. MODELS SOUNDINGS/TIME SECTIONS LOOK TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE CDFNT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER AND IT STILL LOOKS TOO DRY SATURDAY MRNG FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN. HOWEVER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MRNG MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOMES SATURATED AS A SFC LOW/UPPER WAVE HEADS TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. THIS IS THE PERIOD FOR THE BEST TIMING OF PCPN. BY SUNDAY AFTN THE SFC LOW/UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SMALL DRY SLOT. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSRA WITH CAPES ARND 200/8H WINDS 40 KT. HOWEVER SINCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY WEAK NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX...JUST GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HVY RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A CDFNT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AS THE CHC OF SHRA TAPERS OFF. TOTAL RAINFALL BY EARLY MONDAY MRNG WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR MONDAY MRNG...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN AL AND INTO SRN GA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA...AS DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEHIND THE CDFNT. KEPT MONDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF TUESDAY DRY DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DRAG A WEAK CDFNT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US...THE CHC OF WIDESPREAD PCPN LOOKS IFFY ATTM. HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR SHRA FOR WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN. THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL KEEP DRY THANKS TO A LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. 07 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/ FOR 06Z TAFS... CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE BY 14/1500Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. RSB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 66 45 67 53 / 10 10 30 100 SHOALS 68 46 68 54 / 10 10 30 100 VINEMONT 67 45 67 53 / 10 10 30 100 FAYETTEVILLE 66 43 65 51 / 10 10 30 100 ALBERTVILLE 66 43 66 52 / 10 10 30 100 FORT PAYNE 66 43 66 52 / 10 10 30 100 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
Posted on: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 09:23:06 +0000
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