FXUS64 KOHX 130828 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 328 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 .DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WELL ADVERTISED SEVERE STORM AND FLASH FLOOD EVENT FROM THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SPC HAS KEPT MID TN IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE MODERATE RISK AREA OVER THE MID SOUTH...RIGHT UP TO OUR WESTERN BORDER. IN ADDITION TO EXPECTED CONVECTIVE WATCHES THAT WILL COME OUT LATER TODAY...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND POST A WIND ADVISORY AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE MID STATE. EARLY THIS MORNING...A MASS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MID TN. SOME OF THESE WERE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WERE OCCURRING...WHICH WILL HELP FURTHER PRIME THE AREA FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WHEN THE BIG EVENT ARRIVES TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS MORNING ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN NORTH OF MID TN BY 9 AM. THIS WILL LEAVE MID TN IN A RELATIVELY RAIN FREE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP QUICKLY TODAY OVER THE PLAINS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...INCLUDING GUSTS OVER 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE MIXING WITH THE CLOUDS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MUGGY MID 60S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE CAPPED OFF UNTIL STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN EVENT...A CLASSIC HIGH SHEAR...RELATIVELY LOW CAPE QLCS... WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE GUSTY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS GUSTING TO 45 MPH AND BRINGING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AHEAD OF THE STORMS. WHEN THE STORMS ARRIVE...EITHER AS A LINE...OR WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE...DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT BOTH FROM POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND FROM BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE QLCS. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS. WE WILL UPGRADE OUR PREVIOUS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OUR BEST TIMING GUESS FOR THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...11 PM TO 3 AM ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR...AND 3 AM TO 7 AM FOR THE PLATEAU. OF COURSE...THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. STORMS MAY OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THESE TIMES...AND SOME STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER THESE TIMES. THE MAIN SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HANGS BACK. DRY WX IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/ UPDATE... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. AVIATION... SHRA/TSRA CLUSTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NE INTO THE MID STATE AND WILL ADD MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAFS IN THE 07-12Z TIMEFRAME. AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO PRECIP IMPACTS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY/EVENING ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO REACH TN RIVER BY END OF TAF PERIOD...AND WILL MENTION TSRA IMPACTS TO CSV AFTER 14/03Z. SHAMBURGER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 83 67 71 54 / 50 100 60 40 CLARKSVILLE 82 64 69 53 / 60 100 50 40 CROSSVILLE 78 64 70 51 / 40 80 90 40 COLUMBIA 83 66 70 54 / 40 100 60 30 LAWRENCEBURG 83 64 68 53 / 50 100 50 30 WAVERLY 82 64 68 53 / 60 100 50 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ For more information, go to middletnweather.info
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 08:31:05 +0000
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