Former Yemeni President Ali Abdallah Saleh: The Arab Spring Was a Zionist-Western Conspiracy. The West Ignores Yemen at its Peril (Sueddeutsche Zeitung, Germany). A storm is brewing in Yemen. Shiite militias, Sunni tribes, al-Qaeda, Iran and Saudi Arabia are all in the mix in the Middle Easts poorest country. … The geopolitically- and religiously-charged nature of this local conflict only makes finding a solution more complicated. … As the recent attack on Charlie Hébdo made clear, the West should not ignore this seemingly distant crisis. The palace has fallen. Shiite fighters of the Houthi militia have occupied the Presidential Palace in Sanaa. This is the final symbolic act of a creeping coup in Yemen. It all started in September when 30,000 people advanced from their ancestral lands in the north and overran the capital. As of Tuesday (Jan. 22), no minister from the cabinet of President Abed Rabbo Mansur Hadi will be permitted to sign a decree without a Houthi representative given his blessing. And even if then, as Hadis chief of staff attempted to do with the draft for a new constitution, the militia responded with kidnappings, grenades and threats. The internationally-recognized central government is in-effect no longer able to act. [Hadi resigned yesterday, Jan. 24. Videos in right column.] The government is powerless against the jihadists Because of the Shiite advance and the passivity of Hadi, the Sunni tribes in the south felt compelled to take defending themselves into their own hands. Not every battle between the Sunnis and Houthis take place with the participation of al-Qaeda fighters, but often enough the [Sunni] tribes grant the extremists free reign in their territory. The government, in turn, is powerless against the jihadists, and in addition, the militarys loyalty is fragmented and former President Ali Abdullah Saleh (video) still pulls the strings behind the scenes. The drone attacks by the Americans on the cadres of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have not been able to weaken the terrorist group. On the contrary, they have likely strengthened its hand. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and al-Qaeda – many add to the misery Although what is brewing in Yemen is a storm, theres still a chance it will die down again. In the worst-case scenario, the country will break in two – north and south. The south would likely become a haven for Sunni jihadists; the north a reincarnation of the Shiite Zaydi Imamate that dominated the north for a thousand years before the revolution in 1961. In the south, some hope that the Gulf States led by Saudi Arabia will support secession. Meanwhile, the north would find a willing supporter and protecting power in Iran. The Gulf States already see the Houthi militia as an Iranian fifth column, financed, armed and controlled from Tehran. There is no reliable evidence of this, but often perceptions matter more than policy. Its clear that there are close ties between the Houthi leadership and Tehran and also to the Shiite militia Hezbullah – another close Iranian ally. The rise of the Houthis has less to do with greater zeal on the part of the Iranians as it does with a retreat by Saudi Arabia. When the Muslim Brotherhood fell out of favor, the Saudis shifted away from supporting certain Sunni-Islamist parties and families. So they lost influence and they no longer have partners in Yemen. Furthermore, their politics have been poorly coordinated. The West must rely on U.N. intervention Furthermore, the Houthis populist demands have succeeded in gaining support beyond their own base. The geopolitically- and religiously-charged nature of this local conflict only makes finding a solution more complicated. If the Saudis turn off the cash flow to Yemen because they dont want it to end up with the Houthis, the poorest country in the Arab world will be on the verge of collapse. Even now many people there suffer hunger. There is virtually nothing the West can do but rely on United Nations mediation. Grants linked to clearly-defined progress in the implementation of the plan agreed upon in September for a political transition are worth considering by the U.S. and the E.U. As the recent attack on Charlie Hébdo made clear, the West should not ignore this seemingly distant crisis. https://youtube/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=bOTLCj9w4NU
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 01:41:46 +0000
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