Four former Ambassadors on “Changing Strategic Interests in the South Caucasus,” The American Interest, 31 May 2013. The retired diplomats (3 US and 1 EU) argue that “the South Caucasus countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) are losing international significance” while “the West is preoccupied elsewhere.” They urge that in order “to sustain the Western support the three countries expect and need, they must implement reforms and lessen regional tensions.” And they go on to warn that “with international mediation stalled, energy-rich Azerbaijan is stocking up on foreign arms but may overestimate its military power. Armenia has a Russian security accord and military base but is relatively isolated and may also be overconfident. The Russian military occupation of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and some contiguous areas in Georgia since the 2008 war has left a fragile peace. Regional security also suffers from kleptocracy and unrest in Azerbaijan, and fractious governance in Armenia and Georgia.” The diplomats go on to stress that “some trends….are reducing the importance of the South Caucasus.” In Armenia, “politics are precarious, and corruption is pervasive. Blockaded by Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia has extensive relations with Iran. Its educated people earn below their potential. Average income, using World Bank data on purchasing power parity, is only $6,100.” In Azerbaijan, “autocratic President Ilham Aliyev faces growing discontent……Aliyev tries to abate unrest by showering money on elites while suppressing dissent and firing token officials. Oil and gas income buoys average income to $8,960, but oil exports are declining as production peaks. Stage-managed elections later this year are likely to rubber-stamp another Aliyev victory.” On Georgia, they note that “political tensions remain high, however, as deep distrust and competing governance styles play out between Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili and Saakashvili, who will remain in office until October. Georgia’s progress toward democracy is unique in the South Caucasus but is now being questioned by an apparent exercise in selective justice against the outgoing President and his team……While facing westward for security and economic integration, Ivanishvili is easing tensions with Russia…...This will be a slow process, however, as long as Russia recognizes Abkhazia and South Ossetia as “independent.” Georgia’s inadequate economic reforms have weakened the country. Per capita income remains depressed at $5,350, and unemployment is a daunting 30 percent.” “Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to corral former Soviet neighbors into a customs union, but Armenia and Georgia want deeper ties with the far richer European Union. Azerbaijan also prefers links with Europeans, major energy customers, even as they criticize Baku’s human rights abuses. Most important is what South Caucasus countries do to help themselves. Renewed fighting around Nagorno-Karabakh, even if accidental, could bring human tragedy. Tensions may not ease until illiberal rulers stop exploiting nationalism to hold on to power, although democratic leaders might also play this card. International mediation will likely continue but should not be a Western priority unless the sides are ready to make concessions. Democratic and economic reforms, especially in Armenia and Azerbaijan, are crucial and long overdue. Throughout the region, poverty and corruption are self-reinforcing, even in Azerbaijan, which is oil rich but has a skewed income distribution.” The authors conclude by arguing that “unless the South Caucasus countries do more to address their problems, Western support and interest will ebb despite the risks. Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 showed the need for active, consistent Western help to resist coercion. As the energy importance of Azerbaijan diminishes, democratic gains will be vital to sustain Western attention. The Armenian diaspora in the West helps, but the country needs broader international support to overcome isolation. This means improving conditions at home. Even though progress in the South Caucasus is slow, the West must continue efforts to promote peace and stability in the region. The European Union ought to conclude free trade accords with Armenia and Georgia, and with Azerbaijan once it joins the World Trade Organization. America should do likewise. Western encouragement of civil society is vital. To avoid being marginalized, the South Caucasus countries must demonstrate positive change and avoid new conflicts, or they will twist in uncertain winds.” The authors include: Denis Corboy, who served as European Commission Ambassador to Armenia and Georgia, William Courtney, former U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia, Richard Kauzlarich former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kenneth Yalowitz, former U.S. Ambassador to Belarus and Georgia. the-american-interest/article.cfm?piece=1432
Posted on: Sun, 11 Aug 2013 11:30:03 +0000
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