Friends, Not much to worry about the storm- so far FORECAST: The area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, in the SW Gulf about 1/2 between the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and Mexico (20.2N, 93.4has winds of only 30 mph and his headed WNW about 10 mph. NO threat to Florida. In the next few days this system will move NW toward the Mexican coast, probably intensifying some as it goes. The concern is what will happen when a weak trough approaches it just as it is about to go inland. If the storm goes west, it will die immediately (quite possibly not even a tropical storm but still having rain and the threat of mud-slides). If it goes north or southeast, it could gain strength. The forcing is very week and so a small difference in the strength of the front will make a large difference in what happens. At this time there is NO indication that this is going to turn into a significant threat to anyone, anywhere. Most of the systems this year have been spawn from the area of the Yucatan Peninsula and have gone ashore in Mexico. And as I have tried to emphasize, the pre-season estimates of the season are close to pure guesses, this season is likely to bring that point home. Statistically,they show almost no skill.
Posted on: Fri, 20 Sep 2013 12:47:24 +0000