(Frustrating to read comments demanding better predictions -- i.e., only one weather forecast). On models, predictions, and uncertainties. What comes after the sequence: 5, 10, ____, ____, ____, ___. Answer 1: 15, 20, 25, 30. (skip counting by 5s) Answer 2: 16, 23, 31, 40. (+5, +6, +7, +8, +9) Answer 3: 20, 40, 80, 160. (multiply by 2). ALL 3 answers are logical and rational, but led to very different answers. Predicting tools for weather are kinda the same. They used mathematical models (obviously not this simple) using a large set of data. Even if the data they used are similar, they can lead to varying (and may be very far from each other). If we could have known the third and fourth number of the sequence above, it could have narrowed down the choices of the logic to use. So thats why we get updates regularly, to get more accurate predictions. BUT. THERE. IS. NO. WAY. TO. KNOW. THE. FUTURE. we only make intelligent guesses based on the past data.
Posted on: Thu, 04 Dec 2014 08:46:04 +0000
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