GBP/USD Outlook September 16-20 https://facebook/groups/cccfx/ GBP/USD had a banner week, gaining over two cents. The pair closed the week at 1.5871. There are 10 events this week, including a host of inflation releases, highlighted by CPI. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. The pound received a strong boost from Claimant Count Change, which hit a multi-year low. As well, US manufacturing and consumer confidence releases were weak. GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: GBP USD Outlook Sep. 16-20th Rightmove HPI: Sunday, 23:01. This housing inflation indicator dropped 1.8% in July, its first decline since November. The indicator provides a snapshot of activity in the UK housing sector. BOE Quarterly Bulletin: Monday, 23:01. The BOE Quarterly Bulletin is a minor event, as most of the commentary and analysis contained in the report as been released previously. CPI: Tuesday, 8:30. This is the first key event of the week. CPI is the most important UK inflation indicator and is often a market-mover. CPI has been quite steady in recent releases and little change is expected in the August reading, with an estimate of 2.7%. PPI Input: Tuesday, 8:30. PPI Input looks at inflation experienced by manufacturers. In July, the index jumped to 1.1% from 0.2% the previous month. This was the sharpest gain since March. The markets are expecting a much smaller gain for August, with the estimate standing at 0.3%. RPI: Tuesday, 8:30. RPI is similar to CPI, but also includes housing prices, which can distort the underlying trend. The readings have been steady and market estimates have been quite accurate. Little change is expected in the August release, with an estimate of 3.2%. MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes: Wednesday, 8:30. The BOE’s asset purchase facility has remained pegged at 375 billion, but the breakdown of the previous vote drew eyebrows. The breakdown of the vote was 9-0, which was a change from the split vote we have become accustomed to in the past. This points to the ability of new Governor Mark Carney to keep other policymakers in line with his views. The breakdown for the previous vote is expected to remain unchanged. MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: Wednesday, 8:30. The BOE’s vote on interest rates, which has remained at 0.50% for over four years, is usually unanimous, and this is expected to be the case for the previous vote. Retail Sales: Thursday, 8:30.Retail Sales is one of the most important indicators, and provides an important gauge of the health of consumer spending in the UK. The key indicator jumped from 0.2% in June to a sharp 1.2% gain in July, beating the estimate of 0.7%. The markets are bracing for a much lower gain in August, with the estimate standing at 0.5%. Will the indicator beat the prediction? CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Thursday, 10:00. With the British economy showing improvement, confidence indicators have also pointed higher and we are seeing this with Industrial Order Expectations. The indicator has been mired in negative territory since August 2011, but managed to reach the zero level in July, easily beating the estimate of -8 points. The markets are expecting a stronger reading for August, with an estimate of 2 points. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Friday, 8:30. In July, Public Sector posted a surplus of 1.7 billion pounds, which was short of the estimate of -3.7 billion. However, this was the first surplus since January. The markets are braced for a huge deficit for August, with the estimate standing at 11.9 billion dollars.
Posted on: Sun, 15 Sep 2013 22:12:05 +0000
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