Good Thursday morning! YES! It has snowed and I wanted to put a smile on your face this morning for those of you that either didn’t like my snow forecast or feel that it wasn’t accurate. Yes, tonight’s forecast is that it will be …..dark! I saw this sign in front of an art gallery in Cotopaxi, Colorado, a few days ago! I couldn’t resist! Okay, here are your “weather headlines” for this morning’s “forecast discussion!” 1) The heaviest snow fell in a one hour period from 10-11pm (CST) last night when Amarillo picked up 4 inches in that short 60 minute period! 2) Snowfall totals have ranged from just a trace around Beaver, OK, to 12 official inches of snow in Amarillo! There have been drifts to 2-3 feet in a few locations! 3) Some clearing of the skies might happen late this afternoon in the OK Panhandle, NE NM and the northern TX Panhandle, but the rest of us will stay clouded over. 4) We will plenty of sunshine tomorrow and Saturday, but that abundant snow cover will reflect the sun’s energy back into space and highs will stay in the 30s & 40s. For the past few days, we have been talking about this ongoing winter storm and pretty much, it followed “the script”. There were a few differences between what we were forecasting and what occurred. The highest snowfall didn’t end up in NE NM…but right along I-40 from Vega to Groom…including Amarillo & Canyon! What really caused the higher snowfall totals in those areas had to do with a one-hour period where 4 inches of snow fell between 10-11pm! This is called a “convective snow” and sometimes is associated with “thundersnow”…even though no cloud-to-cloud or cloud-to-ground lightning strikes were reported during that time. Did any of the computer models pick up on this? Actually, yes. The NAM (North American Computer Model) did show an enhanced area of 12 inch snowfall totals from Vega to McLean yesterday….but the others didn’t. Light to moderate snow will continue to fall this morning and will linger until around Noon….then change to flurries after lunch and be gone by 5pm. There may be some clearing of the skies across the OK Panhandle, the northeastern corner of New Mexico and the far northern TX Panhandle….but the rest of us will stay clouded over with highs in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Winds will be breezy and blow from the north at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts in the 35-40 mph range possible…causing wind chill values in the single digits and teens during the morning and in the 20s in the afternoon hours. Winds will decrease back to the 10-20 mph range in the afternoon hours. Ive attached the European, Canadian, GFS (American) and NAM (North American Computer Model) data showing the forecasts at 5pm CST today. Note the snow is moving out of the area and skies might try to clear over the OK Panhandle this afternoon as dry air moves in behind the departing upper-level storm system. Tonight will be absolutely frigid as the combination of dry air, light west winds at 5-15 mph, clear skies and especially the snow on the ground will combine to drop the overnight lows into the single digits and teens over nearly all of the area…with the exception of the southeastern TX Panhandle where lower to mid 20s are likely. IF you have to be outside in these frigid temps, dress in layers and limit your exposure to these elements. TGI Friday will feature PLENTY of sunshine…but don’t expect it to warm up much at all! The reason why is that snow has a high “albedo”. What is that? That is the reflective ability of the snow and the sun’s energy goes to melting the snow vs. warming us up. Until the snow is melted, we won’t warm up much. Now, if you didn’t get much snow or no snow at all, your high temperatures will be MUCH warmer than the snow-packed areas will be. For example, high temperatures on Friday will vary from 52 degrees in Childress where no or very little snow fell to 34 degrees here in Amarillo where a foot of snow fell! Winds will blow from the west at 10-20 mph, making it feel even colder than what the thermometer indicates! Friday night and early Saturday won’t be as cold as it was for Friday morning thanks to a little more cloud cover with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing from the west at 5-15 mph. Low temperatures will drop into the teens and 20s by sunrise Saturday. Saturday will be a day to melt more snow, but depending on whether or not you have snow on the ground (Amarillo) or not (Childress) will dramatically affect high temperatures! In fact, high temperatures will range from 38 degrees in Saturday to the mid 50s in Childress! Winds will blow from the northwest at 5-15 mph in the morning to the west at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. Skies may be a little cloudier than they were on TGI Friday with partly cloudy skies expected. Sunday’s high temperatures will rise to only 44 degrees in Amarillo to as high as 60 degrees in Childress where the snow isn’t on the ground as opposed to the snowpack that Amarillo will still have to melt off. Winds will blow from the northwest at 10-20 mph in the morning and then shift to the west at 10-20 mph in the afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy throughout the day. As we head back to work and school on Monday, we will see high temperatures rise into the 50s over areas that still have some leftover snow to melt…to the 60s in areas that have no snow left. Winds will shift around to the north at 10-20 mph behind a “wind shift line”. Winds will decrease and shift back to the west at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy all day long on Monday with just a few patches of high clouds drifting by. I think that by the time we get to Tuesday, we will see the majority, or all of the snow melted away and the entire area will see high temperatures rise back into the mid 50s to the mid 60s by late day. Winds will blow from the west at 5-15 mph in the morning, then shift to the southwest at 10-20 mph in the afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy throughout the day with just a few patches of high clouds passing by. On Wednesday, the warmest high temperatures we have seen in quite a while will occur with highs reaching close to 70 degrees! Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with breezy southwesterly winds at 15-25 mph, with some higher gusts in the 35-40 mph range expected. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy as well. NEXT Thursday will have another cold front blowing through, but unlike the cold fronts we have seen lately, this front is weak and will only drop our high temperatures about 10 degrees to the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds will blow from the north at 10-20 mph in the morning, then decrease and shift to the northeast at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail. Looking for more rain (and maybe some snow?) Well, you might want to watch out for NEXT Friday and Saturday. The attached Canadian Computer Model shows a good chance of both rain and snow next Friday night and early Saturday. The GFS (American) model shows most of the rain south of us…the European Computer Model is dry….showing practically nothing. Now, this is 8-9 days away…and MANY things can change between now and then! That’s a look at your “forecast discussion” today. Take care, stay warm and safe and if you have the day off, enjoy! See you back here first thing tomorrow morning!
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 12:37:22 +0000
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