HERE COME THE HURRICANES / WILL IRELAND, THE UK OR EUROPE GET HIT ? August 29, 2013 Looks like the Atlantic hurricane season after a quite start, will be steaming up from next week onwards with a Africa firing out a string of waves into the Atlantic close to Cape Verde. Unlike the tropical waves that have been ejected from Africa in recent weeks, these upcoming waves will be roaming an Atlantic which will be overhung by much less dry air than has been and also, they will be running up against much lessened wind shear. Dry air and shear seriously hamper tropical development but with much less of both around in the coming weeks and with steaming SST’s (sea surface temps), these new tropical waves will be open to explosion so it’s very possible that we will see the first major hurricane (>category 3 storm) of the Atlantic season within the next 10 days. There is a moderate chance of development over the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico too. Back in late May I suggested after collecting all the data and listening to what others had to say, that we would likely expect 7 to 9 hurricanes, 3 to 5 major (Cat 3 or more). This hasn’t changed. We also suggested a much higher than average risk of (a) major storm(s) striking the Gulf or US eastern coast or both. This also hasn’t changed. Northern Gulf Coasts, the Caribbean, Florida being at risk, the risk continuing up the east coast of the States and continuing up the coast of Canada with Newfoundland one of the areas at highest risk there. The main concerns for a catastrophic hit are Florida and up the coast, Georgia and the Carolina’s, where especially the Outer Banks are exposed to a heightened risk. Places further again up the coast from Virginia to New York / Connecticut are open to a moderate risk while places north of here, the risk decreases but the risk for Newfoundland remains moderate. The northern Gulf of Mexico states like Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are at moderate to high risk while Texas and Central America are at moderate risk of a being hit by a major storm. Risk for Ireland, UK and Europe While it is rare for tropical storms to hit Ireland and Europe, we can and have often taken a clobbering from them. Most hit as extratropical / tropical leftovers such as Katia in 2011. However some do keep some tropical characteristics and can deliver quite a punch such as Charlie in 1986 and hurricane Debbie in 1961. On Tuesday (27TH), the GFS weather model’s midday run fired a storm a strong hurricane at Ireland in about 11 days time, a storm which would have been much stronger than Charlie, probably up in line with Debbie or stringer. However, this is much to far out by any weather model to cause any concern as after 4 to 5 days out, the models are highly useless with tracking tropical hurricanes which in turn seem to have their own minds in choosing their destinations. But still, because Ireland and the UK can get hit by them as well as Iceland, Spain, Portugal, and France, we will be keeping a close eye on them during the next several weeks in case one of them do happen to stray off course and loose their way.
Posted on: Thu, 29 Aug 2013 09:20:05 +0000
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