HONDURAS: There are some distressing signs of electoral fraud after tomorrows elections. It is not likely that violence will take place during the election day itself due to the massive presence of international observers. However, if the Electoral Tribunal delays its announcement of the final results, the chances of a fraud will increase dramatically. In some rural areas the ballots will be counted manually due to the lack of both electricity and Internet. Besides, the LIBRE party has denounced a clear pro-government bias within the electoral authority. The first results, based on a small fraction of the votes, are due to be anounced tomorrow at 18:45 local time and some conclusive results are expected on Monday - which has been declared a hollyday. This could lend itself to a number of provocations from forces interested in a coup, for instance, to give one of the parties an initially big lead in order to stage riots and violent acts. The electoral authority has refused to grant world personalities such as Nobel Peace Prize laureate Rigoberta Menchú and the Spanish judge Baltazar Garzón the status of electoral observers with the explanation that they were supporters of the LIBRE party. On the other hand, infamous putschists such as the Venezuelan specialist in black propaganda, J. J. Rendón, have been working as contractors in the campaign of the officialist Partido Nacional. The fundamental political problem is the following: The Honduran oligarchy is incapable of rolling back the country to the status prior to the coup back in 2009. The genius of the popular movement has come out of the bottle and no power in the world will be able to make it go back into it again. Sectors of the oligarchy understand this and are willing to accept some reforms. For example, the president of the Industrialists Association, Adolfo Facussé, recently said that LIBRE candidate Xiomara Castro can be an alternative for change in Honduras. Facussé represents sectors of the capitalist class with interests in the sweatshop sector which has been severely hit by both the unions protests and the overall instability in the country, specially the lack of a dependable energy service. In recent years, many Honduran capitalists have been forced to establish themselves in Nicaragua because of the stability here. I am sure that many high-level negotiations have been taking place in recent months in order to prepare for some kind of transition, but it seems that the most reactionary groups within the oligarchy and the power elite are not satisfied at all with this. These groups are backed by the worst of the Cuban and Venezuelan maffias in Miami as well as by Uribes drug-related militaries and paramilitaries. It is quite possible that the USSOUTHCOM has a foot there as well. However, the State Department seems to be very interested to avoid its mistake during the 2009 coup against Zelaya, when its ambassador in Tegucigalpa openly conspired to oust the president. At least judging from the exemplary correct behavior of its ambassador here in Managua, Obama seems to realize that an open, public, confrontation with left-wing goverments in the region is not a specially smart idea. If a fraud takes place, expect further conflicts and instability. If it doesnt and LIBRE wins the elections, no matter how big, expect some very difficult first months for the new government since all the administration is in the hands of groups that are antagonistic to any sort of change. Either way, the future of Honduras will have to be fought in the streets. - Jorge Capelán
Posted on: Sun, 24 Nov 2013 02:36:01 +0000
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