Heres a comprehensive update on Typhoon Ruby (Hagupit): Typhoon Hagupit (known locally as Ruby) made its first landfall and continues to lash the central Philippines as a still formidable typhoon with potentially life-threatening winds, storm surge and flash floods. Hagupit (Ruby) made landfall late Saturday night, local time (the Philippines are 13 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern standard time) in eastern Samar, according to PAGASA, the Philippine national weather agency. A 78 mph peak sustained wind was clocked at Guiuan, at the southern tip of eastern Samar Saturday night. Bands of heavy rain lashed Samar and Leyte, including Tacloban City Saturday night. Over 650,000 were evacuated ahead of the typhoon as of early Saturday evening, local time, according to the Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. (MORE: Latest News in the Philippines) Enlarge Hagupit: Infrared Satellite As of 10 a.m. EST Saturday, the U.S. militarys Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated Hagupits top winds were 125 mph, the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane. By 4 p.m. EST Saturday, the JTWC observed weakening in the typhoon and estimated Hagupits top winds at 100 mph, the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) earlier this week declared Hagupit a violent typhoon, the highest classification on its scale, with 10-minute sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts to 190 mph. That ties Vongfong for the highest wind speeds of 2014 in JMAs bulletins. Hagupit has since been downgraded to a very strong typhoon on JMAs scale with winds of 110 mph and gusts to 155 mph as of 10 a.m. EST Saturday. Hagupit moved into the waters east of the Philippines early Thursday local time, prompting that countrys weather agency (PAGASA) to give it the name Ruby. The Philippines has its own alphabetical list of names, separate from the international list, for tropical cyclones passing near or over its territory. On Wednesday night U.S. East Coast time, the Japan Meteorological Agency estimated Hagupits maximum sustained 1-minute wind speed at 180 mph, putting it in a tie with Super Typhoons Vongfong and Nuri in October as the most powerful typhoon of 2014. For days, major disagreements between American and European computer forecast models had created major questions about whether Hagupit would even make it to the Philippines. However, on Thursday, the models began to converge on an ominous forecast track that will take Hagupit on a slow, agonizing path across the heart of the island nation. Among the areas at risk is Tacloban, a city devastated by Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) just 13 months ago. (MORE: On the Ground After Typhoon Haiyan) Forecast: Philippines Impact Enlarge Hagupit: Current Wind Field Enlarge Hagupit Forecast Path PAGASA has issued public storm warning signals for 34 geographic areas, spanning from southeastern portions of Luzon (the main northern island) through the Visayas (central Philippines) and northeastern parts of Mindanao (the main southern island). The island of Samar in the Visayas nearest the initial arrival of the landfall was raised to Public Storm Warning Signal No. 3, meaning winds of 100-185 kph (62 to 115 mph) are expected in at least 18 hours. Also included in signal number 3 are the island of Biliran, and parts of Luzon including Catanduanes, Albay, Burias Island, Sorsogon, Masbate and Ticao Island. These winds are capable of considerable damage to structures of light-medium construction, widespread disruption to power and communications services, and moderate to heavy damage to trees and crops. PAGASA also placed a large part of this region in Public Storm Warning Signal No. 2, meaning 61 to 100 kph (38 to 62 mph) are possible in at least 24 hours, including Tacloban City on Leyte Island. Metro Cebu, the second-largest metropolitan area in the country after Metro Manila, is included in Public Storm Warning Signal No. 2. Metro Manila has now been placed under Public Storm Warning Signal No. 1, meaning winds of 30-60 kph (up to 37 mph) are possible in at least 36 hours. This storm signal may be raised by Monday. (FORECAST: Tacloban | Cebu | Manila) The most intense eyewall winds will persist for a time in Samar Island (particularly northern and eastern parts of the island), and perhaps also affecting northern Leyte Island (including Tacloban City), then shift into Masbate, Albay, Sorsogon and Burias by early Sunday. In areas where the wind blows onshore, dangerous storm surge is likely. Philippine officials have issued storm surge advisories for a number of communities at risk. Some communities on the eastern and northern coast of the island of Samar are at risk of storm surge up to 4.6 meters (about 15 feet) according to the alerts. Enlarge Model Rainfall Forecast The latest rainfall forecast from the U.S.-run GFS computer model. This gives a broad idea of where the heaviest rain will fall, but details will depend on the typhoons track and interaction with mountains. As Hagupit grinds west-northwest across the Philippines, the danger will gradually transition from one of wind damage and storm surge to one of heavy rainfall. Its center should move in the general direction of Metro Manila, but agonizingly slow -- potentially taking 48-72 hours to move from the eastern Philippines to Metro Manila. We expect Hagupits winds to have weakened considerably upon nearing Manila Monday, however, some downed trees/tree limbs, power outages, and structural damage is still possible, there. In general, a tropical cyclones rainfall potential depends on how slowly it moves, not its intensity. Hagupit will be moving along very slowly over an area with rugged terrain. As a result, rainfall totals could be extraordinarily high -- locally exceeding 2 feet -- leading to landslides, debris flows, and life-threatening flash floods. Just three years ago in December 2011, Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) dumped tremendous rainfall on the island of Mindanao, causing massive floods that killed 1,268 people. Winnie was only of tropical depression strength when it triggered deadly flooding in late Nov. 2004. Over the past 10 years, six separate tropical cyclones have claimed over 1,000 lives in the Philippines, including: - Haiyan/Yolanda Nov. 2013: Over 7,300 killed (AP) - Bopha/Pablo Dec. 2012: 1,901 killed - Washi/Sendong Dec. 2011: 1,268 killed - Fengshen/Frank Jun. 2008: 1,410 killed - Durian/Reming Nov./Dec. 2006: 1,399 killed - Winnie Nov. 2004: 1,593 killed (WUNDERGROUND BLOG: Philippines Typhoon History {Written in Nov. 2013}) Storm Spares Small Pacific Islands Earlier in its lifetime, Hagupit made its closest approach to the Yap Islands Wednesday evening, local time (15 hours ahead of U.S. EST), passing about 60 miles to the south of the islands. Given its relatively small wind field at that time, only tropical storm-force wind gusts (peak gust to 43 mph) were recorded at Yap International Airport as of late Wednesday evening. The center passed north of the Republic of Palau Thursday morning, local time (Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainland U.S. time). Closest to the center of Hagupit was Kayangel,a cluster of three atolls making up the northernmost state of Palau It is not immediately clear how intense Hagupits winds were in Kayangel, which like Tacloban was also heavily damaged by Haiyan in 2013. Winds peaked at only 21 mph to the south inKoror, the more heavily populated state of the republic. Typhoon and tropical storm warnings have been discontinued for Yap and Palau. Hagupit began to undergo a period of rapid intensification late Wednesday morning (U.S. East Coast time). According to the U.S. militarys Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Hagupit became a super typhoon as of 2 p.m. EST Wednesday when its maximum sustained winds reached 150 mph -- a sharp increase from 115 mph just six hours earlier. Another six hours later, Hagupits winds reached an estimated 180 mph. The rapid intensification was the result of impressive upper-level outflow channels, basically air flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere spreading apart, or away from, the center of Hagupit. Those outflow channels near the top of the typhoon force air to rise more vigorously within its core circulation, allowing the central pressure to plummet and the typhoons winds to increase. Hagupit is the seventh Western Pacific cyclone to reach super typhoon status in 2014. Incidentally, December tropical cyclones in the western Pacific are a typical occurrence. On average, 1-2 tropical cyclones form in the western Pacific basin each year.
Posted on: Sat, 06 Dec 2014 22:14:38 +0000
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