Heres a small update and info I got from another site to help explain things as of right now. ~D **Things to watch for tonight in the Senate control coverage.** There are eight close Senate races. Assuming there are no major upsets in other races, the Republicans need to win four of these races to take the Senate (they are projected to win 5). Kansas is a little bit odd because the Independent candidate there has no principles and has hinted that he will caucus with whichever party wins, but hell pick the Democrats if its a 49(D)-50(R) split, in which case V.P. Biden will break the tie in favor of the Democrats. State | Margin | Probability ---------|----------|---------- Kansas | I+0 | 53% North Carolina | D+1 | 69% Iowa | R+2 | 70% Colorado | R+2 | 72% Alaska | R+2 | 74% Georgia | R+2 | 75% New Hampshire | D+2 | 79% Louisiana | R+5 | 81% **It is likely that we will not officially know who controls the Senate for a few more weeks.** Any race within 2 points in Alaska will take weeks to call. And Georgia & Louisiana require a runoff if there isnt a winner with over 50% of the vote. LA will have theirs Dec 6th, GA will have theirs Jan 6th, which is ridiculous because the new Congress is sworn in on Jan 3rd. Obviously, any of these three states being called tonight will be a big deal and will point to a landslide one way or the other. Both runoff scenarios favor Republicans to eventually win the seat, however that could change with all of the national attention and money focusing on those two races. Bellwethers: North Carolina (D+1), New Hampshire (D+2) & Georgia (R+2) are the early reporting states. If we see Republicans leading in ALL of those states then thats the ballgame and you can break out the good liquor a little early and plan on Republicans ending up with 54-55 seats. If we see Democrats winning in GA and beating the margin in the other two states then its going to be a long, painful night. If those results are somehow split then its going as expected. *Source for numbers.: fivethirtyeight/interactives/senate-forecast/
Posted on: Tue, 04 Nov 2014 22:30:02 +0000
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