Huge temp spread across area at 4pm Wed: 45-deg Kenosha to 88 Kankakee. Its 86 Pontiac & Streator; 85 Univ Park, Tinley Park, 84 Minooka, Flossmoor. The warm front currently bisecting Chi area (cool east winds off the lake are flowing to the north north while unseasonably warm southerly winds prevail to the south of the front) is generating scat strong t-storms-Doppler scanned tops to 40,000 ft. Atmospheric energy measurements suggest elevated energy values are producing buoyancy--encouraging air to ascend and cool to condensation, generating t-storms. As the same time, a degree of vertical wind shear (a shift in wind directions with height) may encourage localized wind gusts and brief downpours--even some small hail. Heres a snapshot of the NWS Romeoville Doppler radar showing scat t-storms-several with cloud tops to 40,000 ft. T-storms are to come & go overnight. Im posting the t-storm probabilities generated by the National Weather Services SREF model for the 12 hrs covering the period from 7pm this eve to 7am Thu. The probabilities on this graphic indicate the chance of a t-storm occurring within 25 miles of a point. You can better understand the atmospheric conditions driving t-storm development when you examine the Storm Prediction Centers instability analysis posted here and the dew point analysis, which shades relatively humid areas--those with dew points exceeding 64-deg---in green. Temps on this analysis are depicted using dashed lines. Check out the gradient between the cool air over and near Lake Michigan and the near 90-deg temps downstate.
Posted on: Wed, 07 May 2014 21:11:48 +0000
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