I feel an urge to write a Vox-like piece on X Things You Need To Understand About Hamas to Get To Cease Fire. In my spare time, and because Im such an expert. Hah! Anyway, here is very quick and incomplete take so I can enjoy endless comments from people who know even less but compensate with stronger opinions. 1. Hamas thinks and acts like a government, not a stateless group. Not going to argue over designation as terrorist group. Simply pointing out that, behaviorally, Hamas does not act like a stateless org focused solely on achieving a military revolutionary aim. It sees itself as actually running a government. This is important, as orgs that are stateless can focus entirely on offense and have flexibility to disband, go underground, and start over. But Hamas wants to be there tomorrow morning, running Gaza. That means it has certain limits imposed on its action and certain incentives to broker a cease fire that a stateless group doesnt have. this makes cease fire negotiations easier than, say, negotiating with mobile Taliban forces in Afghanistan or FARC in Columbia. 2. More importantly, Hamas thinks of itself as government that needs to be responsive to its electorate. Hamas take great pride in being elected in local elections and then winning significant national votes before the split with the PA. Hamas is also aware that it has rivals within Gaza that want to take power, including various armed militias. On the one hand, this makes hamas more aggressive in certain circumstances. it does not want to lose its branding edge over Fatah as the party of (smart) armed resistance rather than the party of negotiation and popular resistance (which is what Palestinians call various economic and non-violent forms of protest against Israel). At the same time, they are aware that a large portion of the population in Gaza want what most electorates want -- better roads, a working economy, and an ability to build a life with dignity and respect. That means, among other things, building infrastructure and services that get destroyed in armed conflict. So Hamas has incentive to negotiate cease fire rather than fight indefinitely. But, like any elected government, it needs to be able to sell its population on cease fire as a win rather than a surrender. 3. Hamas demonstrates evolution and learns from experience. Hamas tactics, diplomacy and governance all demonstrate a steady pattern of maturity. Part of this is the advantage of being a quasi-government and cease fire conditions that let most of your middle ranks stay in place and learn rather than duck and dodge drones. (While Israel does conduct targeted killings, they tend to correspond to times of increased tension. Israel has learned that targeted killings are to the Palestinians what suicide bombs are to Israel, destructive but not terribly effective at demoralizing the population.) The result is that Hamas looks to long term strategy and learns from its mistakes. Its current tactics demonstrate this. Targeting Dimona (Israels nuclear power plant) is a classic example of shifting targets from population centers to infrastructure. Hamas does not repeat disastrous mistakes (e.g., the soldier kidnapping that set off the 06 war). They also understand hudna, cease fire with an enemy to get stronger. 4. Hamas Has A Worse International Situation Than It Did Previously. Hamas biggest incentive to settle is that its international situation has deteriorated. No one in the region is in a position to give Hamas the kind of help and support they used to get. Egypt is now back in the hands of a military that is cool to Hamas. Hezbollah is tied up in Syria, as is Iran. Turkey has its own problems. The EU, long a source of diplomatic and economic support, is also weaker for Hamas. The general shift of the EU to the right, its own growing anti-Islam constituency, and continuing internal economic and political crises (such as the Ukraine) make the EU much less likely to weigh in heavily for Hamas or give it humanitarian support. Finally, fears of regional instability mean even generally soldi allies with money like Qatar are being pressured by other Arab states to cool things down, rather than ramp up the struggle. Needless to say, this weighs to Hamas in favor of a cease fire -- if it can get one on terms it can live with and that dont jeopardize its internal support. 5. Hamas benefited from the unity government and wants to increase its influence in the PA. Finally, Hamas benefited enormously from the recent unity deal with Fatah. Hamas is popular in the West Bank (although polling shows a majority still support Fatah and support popular resistance over armed resistance. Hamas wants to be elected to head the Palestinian government. To do this, it needs peaceful access to the West Bank and legitimacy as part of the government rather than a split off in a civil war. Cease fire on terms that can be portrayed as a win helps this goal. Waiting too long for cease fire so that the cost is too high damages their goal of persuading other Palestinians to support their approach.
Posted on: Thu, 10 Jul 2014 11:32:10 +0000
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