I respect everyones views, and I hope rational and reasoned decision making will prevail tomorrow. Just to be clear, this is what you get with a Yes vote. A Yes vote moves control of interest rates to a foreign country, who will not be looking out for Scotlands interests. This impacts, inflation, investment, unemployment, exchange rates...your mortgage. The Scottish government would have no control. Even if a currency union happened, Scotland would have to submit budget to UK for approval who would decide Scotlands expenditure. Given the visceral support of the Yes camp and anti Westminster rhetoric, this would seem to run entirely counter to their cause. With national debt at circa 77% GDP, any politician who says there are not going to be austerity cuts is simply not credible. People are extremely naive on this point...either the government must raise more tax or spend less. There is no magic solution...the bill must be paid. To date the Scottish Government has only stated they will reduce corporation tax by 3%...not increasing tax revenues. The Yes spending plans are based on oil, which is declining in value and extremely volatile. Given the variance in oil tax receipts year by year, Scotland would be unable to sustain spending plans over the near term if a large variance was experienced (over the last 5 years oil tax revenues have ranged from £4.6bn to £10.9bn). There is no contingency plan. This can be managed over a UK size population, but not a population of 5m. This puts public services at risk. Also just on this Scottish oil, it is a joint asset on the balance sheet of the UK. Like any divorce this will be negotiated, so Scotland will not receive all the tax revenues from oil in Scottish Waters, this will be split with the rest of the UK...a fact that is widely overlooked. The Yes campaign want change for a fairer society which is understandable. It is also entirely ambiguous. The reality is the cost and time of setting up a new country would be to the detriment on the current and future generation. The uncertainty would reduce investment and has already resulted in significant capital flight. The paradigm of this is that people blame Thatcher for deindustrialisation and a lost generation in the 80s, and if a yes vote occurs, I believe the capital flight, brain drain, lack of investment during the negotiation period and no control of monetary policy could result in another lost generation. In my view the case for independence has not been made and presents significant unnecessary risk given the alternative proposed increase in devolved powers. I would encourage you to Vote No, however I respect your right to vote anyway you see fit, for whatever reason...but seriously Vote No.
Posted on: Wed, 17 Sep 2014 20:57:46 +0000
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