I was struck by the sub heading to this article - Rajoy and Mas may have to reach deal sooner rather than later. This perception doesnt really correspond to the world I see around me. I think the Catalan politician (and leader of the UDC party) Antoni Duran i Lleida was much nearer to the point during the week when he said in the Spanish parliament that if Mariano Rajoy didnt do something soon he would be faced with a Catalan parliament doing a UDI. I dont think he was sabre rattling. I think he was trying to get politicians in Madrid to take this seriously and realise they have to do something. He wasnt arguing for independence, he was arguing for what he calls the third way, a new federal structure for Spain, one which seems to be increasingly out of reach. I also noted this bit: On the other, there is a large number of Catalans who dislike the status quo but who remain reluctant to break with Spain. They resent the way that regional tax revenues are carved up, and worry about recent moves by Madrid to curtail the use of Catalan in state schools. Their grievances may be hard to resolve, especially at a time when Spain is still struggling to emerge from a deep recession. But their demands ultimately boil down to money and legal guarantees. They simply want a better deal. I think this is a bit out of date frankly. Things were like this, but times have changed. I am sure this is the view of members of the financial and business elite that jounalists talk with, but it doesnt represent the view of most native speaking Catalans on the ground. This is why the independence threat needs to be taken seriously. I mean, to take an example, Catalonia has three internationally well known economists - Jordi Gali, Xavier Sala i Martin and Andreu Mas Culell (see Collectiu Wilson - wilson.cat/es/. All three favour having a vote and all three will vote yes. 10 years ago this probably wouldnt have been the case. This is the change many journalists are missing. I think a majority of Catalan voters now dont simply want a better economic deal, they want respect, and at the very least a changed status within Spain which recognizes their different identity. PSOE is waking up to this - possibly due to pressure from the PSC which is now badly divided. So it needs a constitutional change which would allow Catalonia to be recognized as a nation (complete with football team, like Wales, like Scotland). Really the situation we have now seems to me to be structurally very similar to the recent US debt limit stand-off. Most people assume it wont happen, so dont position against the risk. But we have the Spanish tea party element to think about (Aznar, Aguirre???). Speaker Rajoy might be prepared to reach out across the hemisphere and cut a deal with PSOE on constitutional change, but would his speakership survive? And if a solution isnt found through negotiation (including with the participation of the EU), then yes, as Spains leaders suggest, Catalonia could find itself outside the Euro and EU. But hang on a minute, what would this imply - a highly competitive nation of entrepreneurs being let loose to compete with their own currency? Wasnt it only last year we were worried about Greece - whose GDP is about three quarters of the size and whose economy is much less integrated in European supply chains - leaving the Euro? Would Catalonia leaving be any less contagious? The last time I thought very strongly that a deal would be made about something because it was the rational thing to do was after General Galtieri invaded the Falklands. I was sure the UK Foreign Office would negotiate a way forward. But I didnt count on someones determination to send a thousand young Argentinian boys to the bottom of the icy sea. This isnt simply about money anymore, it is about respect, and restoring the hopes that were contained in the last statute which was effectively kyboshed by the PP in the constitutional court. Saying Catalans - like Scotsmen - only think about money seems to me to conform to the worst of stereotypes: that we are mean. We only like working and earning money, like a nation of Japanese salarymen. Or is that unfair on the Japanese?
Posted on: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 08:29:08 +0000
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