Important read from the Saker: If somebody still sincerely believes that Strelkovs move was anything short of a very smart and perfectly timed withdrawal from an untenable position, I have no more arguments to challenge such a belief. To the others I will say this: retreating is one of the most difficult and important skills in warfare, completely underestimated and misunderstood by civilians, it constitutes a grueling and most revealing test of the quality of the forces executing it. It appears that Strelkov achieved a near-perfect, orderly and impeccably timed retreat from an already surrounded Slaviansk and that is the best proof possible of his superb tactical skills. What I would like to do now, is look not at the tactical issues, but at Russian strategic options. Not how Russia would try to do this or that, but rather what the Russian final, campaign, objective is likely to be.[...] I think that the first thing we need to ask is this: can Russia accept, or somehow live with, the US project? What is that project again? A unitary (non-federal) Ukraine run by russophobic Nazis completely under US control, with NATO inside the Ukraine and any forms of Russian influence out. At the very best, that would mean that Crimea would be under constant threat of attack and, at the worst, this would mean a Ukie/NATO/US attack on Crimea as soon as enough forces would have been mustered. Ask yourself, is that an outcome acceptable for Russia? Is there any chance that Putin could be persuaded to accept this? My reply is an emphatic no way!. This is simply not an outcome Russia can accept, regardless of who sits in the Kremlin. Ok, so what about a deal with Poroshenko? Something like, you give up Crimea, and I give up Donbass? Nonsense. First, there is no Poroshenko. Well, ok, there is a guy called Poroshenko in Kiev, but he has no power at all. The real power is not even Obama, its the US deep state: Obamas puppet masters and Poroshenkos puppet masters. Now ask yourself a basic question: does the US deep state need Donbass? Of course not! The Donbass - who needs it who does not? What is the Donbass? In a few words, the Donbass is a completely Russian region which by the absurdities of history has found itself part of the Ukraine, just like Crimea. Furthermore, the Donbass is a region almost exclusively focused on trade with Russia. It has coal and high tech industrial capabilities (including military). The US, the EU or even the AngloZionist empire as a whole has exactly zero need for the Donbass. Russia yes, Russia could definitely use much of the potential of the Donbass, but not anybody else. Now, if the Donbass is handed over the the Nazi-controlled rump-Ukraine (what I call Banderastan) it will thereby and automatically lose any and all of its value: cut off from Russia, the Donbass is useless. Just like a key is only useful when there is a lock, Donbass is only useful through its relationship to Russia. Cut that off and Donbass is worthless. So what would happen to a Donbass part of a unitary Banderastan? Well, first, Russia would have to immediately cut it off from the Common Trade Zone (to protect Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and future members) from EU goods. Furthermore, the junta freaks have already announced that Banderastan will not supply the Russian military industry. Besides, the Donbass is already in free fall - since the beginning of the year the exports to Russia have dropped, if I am not mistaken here, by something like 1/4, or 25%. So, lets face it, if the Nazi junta ever gets the Donbass, it will be a wasteland, and not the major source of income it has been since 1991. Setting aside the patriotic values of an imaginary state (the Ukraine) re-taking its historical lands (at least in their imagination), the Donbass has zero value and therefore neither the junta nor the US will ever agree to such a trade. You might ask why the Ukies are fighting so hard to get their hands on a useless piece of land. It is really simple. So what is the fight really all about? First, remember, the Ukies decide nothing. Its Uncle Sam. And Uncle Sam wants a new Cold War, Uncle Sam fosters wars and crises everywhere, because that is crucial to justify NATO and because it keeps the dollar going. For Uncle Sam, a decade long war in the Donbass is perfect: make them accursed Russkies pay for Syria, get NATO closer to Russias border, scare the crap of out the Europeans, crash the Euro in the process, and justify NATO. What could be better?! But the junta also has a need for war. For one thing, it provide the perfect scapegoat: Putin, the Moskals, the all-powerful FSB, etc. That also creates an atmosphere of fear, which is excellent for police powers, human and civil rights abuses, etc. It also allows the Nazis to hunt for saboteurs and Russian agents (anybody who disagrees with their ideology or policies). A war is also a perfect way to explain the crisis. It is even a way to make great money: Kolomoiski has already made millions by overcharging the Ukie military for fuel. Last but not least, wars create chaos and thugs always like chaos and lawlessness: that is an environment they always prosper in. So both Uncle Sam and his Nazi junta in Kiev want war, not the Donbass. What does that mean for Russia? Well, we have established that Russia cannot allow the US plan for the Ukraine to succeed. Russia cannot allow a unitary Nazi and NATO state on its western border. We also have established that no deal can be made, there is nothing to negotiate simply because neither Uncle Sam nor the Nazi junta have any interest at all in any form of negotiations. The only possible conclusion from this is that Russia has only one option left: victory. Or, if you prefer, total defeat for the junta in Kiev and for Uncle Sam. In reality, Russia has no choice I want to stress here that this is not strictly speaking a choice. Think of it this way: if I point a gun at your chest and say your money or your life you do, I suppose, have kind of a choice, but we dont really call that a choice, do we? Same here, Russia does, of course, have the choice to put her very existence at risk, but no sane Russian ruler could ever agree to let a unitary Nazi Ukraine on the Russian border. So Russia has to resist this outcome. Russia must defeat this US/Nazi alliance and its goals. And for this the Nazi junta in Kiev must fall. To put it simply: Russias real goal in the Ukraine is regime change. Nothing short of that will do. Russia must absolutely de-Nazify at least most of the Ukraine, at the very least everything west of the Dniepr and probably even Kiev. If Russia had a common border with a normal, sane, Ukraine and that Ukraine had a common border with some kind of small Galician Banderastan, then Russia probably could live with it. But such a mini-Banderastan would be either highly subversive to the rest of the Ukraine or non-viable. I cannot imagine that. Besides, chances are that even the folks in the western Ukraine will come to their senses sooner or later and realize that Nazism is good for nobody, not even for them.[...] If we add to this the fact that the Ukraine is basically finished economically, dead for all practical purposes, and that no matter what the economic crisis will explode before the end of the year, we can see why regime change might very well happen even without any Russian intervention at all. The only game plan in town From the above we can make a three simple and basic conclusions: 1) Under no circumstances can Russia allow Novorussia to fall 2) Regime change in Kiev is a vital Russian strategic goal 3) Moscow will only move in its military forces as a last resort Now Putins game plan becomes, I think, clear: keep Novorussia capable of resisting while waiting for regime change in Kiev. This, of course, does not mean that Russias aid will become official, though it might, especially if the Ukies go crazy and the humanitarian situation gets worse. Furthermore, and cynical as this may sound, the war in Novorussia is a fantastic factor of psychological mobilization of the people in Russia and in Novorussia. Again, lets face it, what I call the resistance potential of Novorussia is far from being achieved and most Novorussians are still observing it all on TV. But now that Slaviansk has fallen and it looks that Donetsk and Lugansk are next and now that Ukie artillery can already been heard downtown, you can rest assured that more and more Novorussians are going to realize that this is not a war they can simply observe on their TV sets: they voted for independence en masse, now they will have to defend that choice, also en masse. As for Russia, I can assure you that the daily barrage of horrible, outrageous and infuriating news from the Ukraine has already had a huge impact in Russia. Just consider these figures which a Kremlin official has released yesterday. Officially, there are now 481268 refugees from the Ukraine in Russia, 414726 in the border region (Rostov) alone, and 20461 have already applied for refugee status. So while the US State Department denies the reality of this phenomenon or, alternatively, explains it by the fresh air of the Rostov mountains (no such thing) or by people visiting their grannies, the Russian audiences are shown huge Il-76 heavy transport aircraft regurgitating entire families, long lines of refugees on Russian border posts (which, by the way, the Ukies regularly strike by mistake), popular music groups (such as DDT) make concerts to collect assistance funds, entire tent cities build by (the world class) EMERCOM and scores of refugees are hosted all over Russia in hotels, families or even specially built centers. So please dont kid yourself, if the horrors in the Donbass are not seen by the western Ziomedia, they are a daily feature on all Russian news media and this barrage of events is having a deep and long-term effect on the general population. vineyardsaker.blogspot.ca/2014/07/for-russia-issues-is-tactics-not.html
Posted on: Wed, 09 Jul 2014 07:13:07 +0000
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