In the weeks before the Russian intervention in Crimea, the administration has been consciously trying to up its game in Asia, ahead of Obamas April visit to Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines. In February, Danny Russel, assistant secretary of state for East Asia, said China had created uncertainty, insecurity and instability in the region by its behavior in the South China Sea. Yet if Russia annexes Crimea, and is seen to not pay too high a price, some in China will take that as a green light to push their own territorial claims even harder. If Putin can call the Wests bluff, whats to stop China? That said, there is nothing inevitable about a closer Sino-Russian alliance. As Chinas influence grows, Russia could end up seeing Beijing as much as a rival as a partner. Putins Crimea incursion is motivated by his desire to protect Russias sphere of influence to its west, where it feels under threat from Europe. But he is also intent on maintaining Russian influence in Central Asia, where China is the long-term challenger. Over the last five years, Chinese presence in Central Asia has increased dramatically, the product of huge energy deals, extensive oil and gas pipelines, and financial support. During Xis September visit to Kazakhstan -- the Central Asian nation that is also part of Putins Eurasian Union -- he opened a new natural gas pipeline to China, formalized a $5 billion Chinese investment in the project, and signed business deals worth $30 billion. Russias southeast flank is just as vulnerable as its western one. Russia also worries about Chinese migration into eastern Siberia and about Chinese naval intentions in the northern Pacific and Arctic region. Even as Moscow and Beijing have been growing closer over the last two years, Russia has also been improving ties with Japan and they have been holding quiet talks over Pacific Ocean islands disputed by both countries. The power dynamics of China and Russia are also very different. Chinas ambitions are those of a great power on the rise: the Crimea takeover is the lashing out of a leader trying to hang on to some leverage in Ukraine that is rapidly disappearing. The last thing Putin wants it to play second fiddle to Xi, the way Britain does to the United States. But overall, the situation looks promising for Beijing. Even if the situation in Ukraine is resolved relatively quickly and U.S. relations with Russia do not completely fall apart, Obama will now spend a lot more of his time in office focusing on Europe; trying to boost the relationship with Germany and reassuring allies in Eastern Europe who have felt neglected. The administration will claim it can manage all these issues, but top-level attention to Asia will drop. The pivot will suffer as a result of Ukraine -- and that, among other things, is a win for Beijing
Posted on: Sun, 23 Mar 2014 05:41:56 +0000
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