It a fact undeniable that Europe is traveling at two speeds and the Pigs , the countries of Southern Europe in trouble, should adopt a common policy that is not her back to Germany. Exports of Pigs are held back by the value of the Euro, a situation that is becoming unsustainable , it is time to evaluate a two-speed euro and start discussing at a communal table with Pigs a unified position towards the EU . In 2014, Italy in danger of collapse , interview with Pritchard , International Business Editor of The Daily Telegraph from the Antidiplomatico , Alessandro Bianchi. Alessandro Bianchi: Speaking to the Telegraph , she often wrote that the countries of Southern Europe should form a cartel and speak with one voice in the board of the ECB and the various summit to force the policy change necessary to revitalize their economies . Believes that the system can still save € or judges better for a country like Italy choose return to its national currency ? Pritchard : What we need in Europe today is an economic shock on the model dellAbenomics ( macroeconomic series of initiatives implemented in 2013 to revive Japan from decades of economic depression , ed.) Italy , Spain, Greece and Portugal, along with France must stop pretending not to have a common interest to be protected. These countries have the necessary votes to force a change. The ECB today is not complying with its obligations under the treaties and not just for the 2% target , given that treaties are not talking only inflation , but also for growth and employment. The figure of 0.8 % in October is a real disaster for the performance of the trajectory of long-term debt . Without a change in strategy stronger, Italy will collapse in 2014. The country has a primary surplus of 2.5 % of GDP and yet its debt continues to increase. The drama of Italy is not moral , but it depends on the deflationary crisis, which is forced by his participation in the euro zone. Politics is about choices and courage. To date, no action has been taken to prevent dissolve the political consensus of the euro in Germany. But today there is a greater threat and if Berlin does not accept the new policies , it can also leave the system. The return to Spain , Italy and France to a weak currency is just what Latin American countries in need. Moreover, the German threat is a bluff and the countries of southern Europe must expose him. The time of confrontation has arrived. Alessandro Bianchi: The problem is that the current governments of Southern Europe seem hypnotized by the spell of more Europe and do not consider other solutions. Why does this happen ? Pritchard : I recently had the opportunity to meet in London on Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta , and we just talked about this. To my question as to why this is not done promoter of a cartel with other European countries in trouble to force this change, the Italian prime minister told me that according to him will be Angela Merkel to change its attitude in the next mandate and meet the needs of South is an approach utterly disappointing . Enrico Letta, as well as Hollande in France , is a fervent believer of the project of European integration and can not accept that the current situation is a complete disaster. This attitude enables him to understand the reasons why the euro has become so dysfunctional for the member countries . Alessandro Bianchi: Those who argue that southern European countries can not return to their national currencies using two reasons in particular: the huge inflation resulting in the inevitable devaluation and then not being able to withstand the competition of commercial giants such as China. The judge correct? Pritchard : It is, in both cases , the exact opposite of reality. The euro is a real curse for exports, which depend on the prices and the exchange rate . The European countries overvalued because of the single currency have lost a significant portion of their global market at the expense of China. With that Beijing keeps the yuan undervalued and with a vastly overvalued currency , many areas where the Italian industry are inevitably excels in crisis. A crisis that depends on the exchange rate . Regarding inflation , if Italy were to proceed to a chaotic and disorderly collapse of the euro, the country could lose in the first phase, the control of prices. But today the latter are already out of control . In the countries of southern Europe is an ongoing crisis of deflation that threatens to revive the lost decade of Japan with startling shapes for that as the trend debt / GDP ratio . In Italy increased from 120 % to 133 % in two years: it is a trap that is leading the country to collapse. The problem today is to fight deflation and not inflation . Current experience of Italy and the other countries of the euro zone is well known in Britain. In our country there were two examples of similar crisis of deflation and internal devaluation : in the early 30s with the system of the Gold Standard and the EMS crisis of 1991-1992 . In both cases , the United Kingdom has led to the breakdown of the system and restored full control of its currency at a time when the interests of the country were put at risk. Critics at the time used the same argument of inflation, but in 1931 the output of the Gold Standard , in a situation of domestic deflation , there was no uncontrolled increase in prices, with the monetary stimulus and devaluation that have been the prerequisite for the recovery from the Great Depression. The exact same experience we lived in 1992 with the EMS crisis . We often tend to have a superficial approach to economic issues and this does not help the political debate. If you were to leave the euro, Italy should opt for a large monetary stimulus from the Bank of Italy, a devaluation and fiscal policy under control. This combination would provide the country with a smooth transition and no crisis out of control. Alessandro Bianchi: Very often those who consider unsustainable return to national currencies also afraid of the unsustainability of being able to withstand the inevitable economic retaliation in Germany. It is a credible threat ? Pritchard : There is nothing further from the truth . E in the interests of Germany to manage the output, if a member country in the most linear , smooth and quiet as possible . In the case of a depreciation of the lira out of control , for example , the biggest loser would Berlin: German banks and insurance companies that have huge investments in Italy would be at risk failure , and additionally German industries could no longer compete with the Italian global markets. It would be primordial interest of the Bundesbank acquire international currency markets the lire , francs , pesos or drachmas to prevent a collapse . It is a very important point to understand : in case one of the southern countries were to decide to leave the system in isolation , it is in the interest of economic countries of northern Europe , primarily Germany, to prevent its currency is out of control and ensure a smooth transition . All the stories of terror on any disasters that we read have no economic base . Alessandro Bianchi: In several of his recent articles , you declare as the push for change will come from France. What will be the element that will determine in practice? Pritchard : With unemployment growing to levels not controllable , Hollande , who has set as its primary goal of his presidency of employment, has lost all credibility and is reaching the breaking point with Europe. What is happening today in France is an exact repetition of the factors that the country has experienced from 1934 to 1936 , with the Gold Standard when the country was in a situation of deflation, mass unemployment and had no tools to share . The data have come to an unsustainable level in the presidency Laval in 1935 and resulted in a revolutionary political change in 1936 : the victory of the Popular Front . France is now in a situation similar to 1935 , with the economic data continue to worsen from month to month , and a turn as that of 1936 is approaching. Just look at the voltage of the protest movements in Britain or the results of the National Front growing to understand it. Alessandro Bianchi: Le Pen will be to impress this change? Pritchard : The rise of the National Front is amazing, but I do not think that will ever take power. What happens , however, will be just as revolutionary , as it will force the other parties, especially the Gaullists , to change their policy . The program Le Pen is clear: immediate exit from the euro - with the French Treasury will propose an agreement with creditors Germans, and if they will not accept France shall return the same to the franc and the main losses will be for Germany - and then on the EU referendum on the English model . Are topics that meet the sympathy of a growing number of people across the board and the other parties can no longer ignore them. The National Front is forcing the other parties to change their agenda and realize that they can not just have the same opinion of Berlin and Brussels. Alessandro Bianchi: In many countries we are witnessing the merger of the conservative parties and socialists to defend against austerity in Brussels and the voting intentions of the electorate. The vote of the national parliaments on the laws of stability now no longer matters and governments expect only the approval of the Commission. Finally, the countries are indebted to finance inter-governmental organizations such as the ESM , which will take key decisions for the lives of people in the coming years and has no mechanisms inside of transparency and democratic control. But what is becoming the European Union? Pritchard : The difficulty today is to understand why the creation of the various instruments of cohesion Federal decided by the EU have created a system so dysfunctional . The fundamental problem is the lack of control of tax and spending by a democratically elected parliament . It is no coincidence that the English Civil War began in 1640 when the king tried to remove these powers to the Parliament or the American Revolution broke out when this power has been removed from London to states such as Virginia and Massachusetts , who exercised by time . Are examples of Anglo-Saxon , but there are many others of how the foundations of democracy are the control of the budget and taxes by a government elected by the people . What is happening to the EU , on the contrary , the attempt to give the management tools and supranational structures , which have no basis with no Parliament . E extremely dangerous and clearly undemocratic. The argument that is often used in its defense is that it is a first step is undemocratic , but you need to complete the federation on the U.S. model . The American system would be the logical model to be imitated , but it is not feasible : there is no political consensus among European citizens and for the USA there were systems , institutions and traditions completely different. François Heisbourg in his latest book central to perfection this point : you can not create a political union with the goal of saving the euro. It s ridiculous . The federation must be subject to great ideals that shape a society and not to save a coin. Countries need to return to the social reality as soon as possible and not have to think about financial engineering instruments to make something work that can not work. Alessandro Bianchi: The referendum by Cameron wanted to renegotiate the participation of the United Kingdoms accession finds favor with a growing number of countries , especially in northern Europe. What do you expect from voting English? Pritchard : The first reaction in Europe when Cameron launched the referendum was to define the British stupid suicides. The argument was that London would lose the market and you would be resigned to the economic decline. It is ridiculous arguments . People who have still not well understood how the European Union, such as those with which I was confronted at the Ambrosetti Conference in Como in September, know that the output of the UK would be a disaster, but not for London, for the EU . The European project is based on three legs , one of which is Great Britain , Holland and the Scandinavian countries . And without one of these , the EU is over, because the internal chemistry would change and it would be particularly difficult, especially for France to maintain the subtle balance with Germany. The British decision is a huge warning in Brussels : the integration has gone too far the will of the people and the people want some powers back . The European Constitution was rejected by a referendum in France and the Netherlands. The treaties were not put to the recent judgment of the people , except in Ireland, but forcing her to vote until acceptance . This stage who proceed without public involvement is over. This kind of arrogance is over. Alessandro Bianchi: In May of next year there will be elections for the European Parliament , a key test for political parties and movements skeptical towards Brussels. The EU will never be the same ? Pritchard : As a scholar of the economy I find it difficult to answer. I can say that today the greatest danger for the countries of Southern Europe is called deflationary crisis , which could soon turn into an economic depression able to bring the trajectory out of control debt / GDP ratio . It a potential disaster . In this context , the policy must ask the purpose of recovering a number of sovereign powers delegated to Brussels and the European elections next May will be a potentially momentous event : the parties skeptical of the institutional architecture could be the first in a number of countries - the UKIP in Britain , the National Front in France, the Five Star Movement in Italy, SYRIZA in Greece and in other countries - and will be a chance for people to express their annoyance and frustration against the choices from Brussels . An important political bloc will destroy this artificial myth that is built : the EU will never be the same and will be forced to be less ambitious and understand that many of its prerogatives must return to the nation states . The governments of Italy , Spain, France should take back full control of the lives of their citizens and not think about enlargement to Ukraine or Turkey . This is the last battle.
Posted on: Sun, 10 Nov 2013 20:02:48 +0000
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