It appears many Ukrainians do not yet understand the fundamental economic and political dynamics at play in the Ukraine. On the one hand, they don’t want Yanukovich ‘crony capitalist’ regimes that do little for them and much for themselves. But the crony capitalists still remain in Kiev, in Parliament and government, even though Yanukovich himself is gone; they have only switched sides to protect their personal interests (and of course their western bank accounts and investments when threats were made to freeze them). The Ukrainians are therefore about to trade one set of economic vultures (e.g. Oligarchs) for another in Kiev: The formerly homegrown Oligarch who is now in the process of remaking himself with new, closer western ties. On the other hand, perhaps many average Ukrainians do understand. As one was quoted in an interview in Kiev on the street, “’We need new people who can say no to the oligarchs, not just the old faces’, referring to the billionaires who control blocks of votes in Parliament”. (New York Times, February 25, 2014). Unfortunately, the average Ukrainian is not driving the current situation. The proto-fascist street parties are dominating and directing the ‘outside’ strategy, while the ‘crony capitalists’ on the ‘inside’ in Parliament are being played like a violin by western interests. The EU and USA may be in the process of consolidating their inside strategy with upcoming elections, but they may find controlling the radical, ultra-right elements, and denying those elements a real role in government, may prove more difficult than they think. The historical analogy of Weimar Germany capitalists in the early 1930s thinking they could control the Nazis in the street is not totally inappropriate here. Nor is the concern that the latter street elements could drive the situation toward a military confrontation. Indeed, perhaps the greatest concern at the moment is that the radical street elements may retain influence the situation sufficient to push the new Ukrainian government into a direct military confrontation with Russia before the May elections—and before the EU and USA can effectively neutralize their influence.
Posted on: Sun, 09 Mar 2014 23:10:05 +0000
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