It will be VERY close, and its not looking good for John Key! Roy Morgan have the NATS at 46.5 %....right on the cusp... but they have been constantly much lower on election day as gauged by past opinion polls (see below). Labour has always polled higher at the ballot box than in opinion polls. In the last election, Labour ended 2-5% higher than all last week of the election opinion polls. The Greens are now up, on 14.4%. At the last election, Roy Morgans last poll gave the Nats 49.5 % (...all others opinion polls had the NATS at 50-53% 3-4 days before the election) - and the NATS in the end got 47.48%. So a similar drop of 2% would give it to....probably Winston Peters, and whoever he wanted as cp -probably Labour/Greens. The 3 News Reid Research poll in 2011 had the Nats over 3 points higher than election day. ..which would give the Nats today only 41.5% (3 points less than in their poll today) -in reality a big loss for the Nats. Both of these TV3 and the RM polls were held before the Greenwald-Snowden-Asssange revelations. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011
Posted on: Wed, 17 Sep 2014 11:01:35 +0000
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