JTWCWDPN31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (PEIPAH) WARNING NR 13// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 05W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT PGTW AND RJTD SATELLITE FIXES AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND RECENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE CONSENSUS DATA. TS 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TS 05W LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR HAS CONFINED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED VERY SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OFFSET THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. C. THE MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL BE DISRUPTED AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND, ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SLIGHTLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVE DURING THE SAME PERIOD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THE JGSM, JAPANESE ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE LATEST RUN. HOWEVER, THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED BY THIS MODEST SHIFT, AND THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN
Posted on: Sun, 06 Apr 2014 06:14:49 +0000
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