Jos Boonstra and Marlene Laruelle : In both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the smoothness of the presidential successions will depend to a large degree on the redistribution of economic resources among political and business elites. As new leaders will lack the clout of their predecessors they will likely seek consensus, potentially leading to some reform of state institutions, economic liberalization but also rising nationalist sentiment. Nation-wide revolts cannot be excluded, but presidential succession processes are more likely to be upset by disaffected elite members supporting local social-economic protests.
Posted on: Fri, 11 Apr 2014 12:50:39 +0000
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