LIkely OUTCOME OF 2015 ELECTION I here by Kabirusaje discovered of recent that some Nigerians do view 2015 election from the angle of what they want instead of viewing it from the angle of reality on ground. Since the begining of fourth republic, the ruling party PDP has been having landslide victory. In 1999 election, Obasanjo of PDP polled 18,738,154 to defeat Olu Falae of AD-App who polled 11,110,287. In 2003 election, Obasanjo of PDP polled 24,456,140 to defeat Buhari of ANPP who polled 12,710,002 and some other contestants. In 2007 election, YarAdua of PDP polled 24,638,063 to defeat Buhari of ANPP who polled 6,605,299 and some other contestants. In 2011 election, Jonathan of PDP polled 22,495,187 to defeat Buhari of CPC who polled 12,214,853. With the above results, it would have been so easier to predict the 2015 election in which one will give it to the PDP but the reverse is the case because of some reasons best known to all of us. With the emergence of Jonathan as PDP candidate and Buhari as APC candidate, below is the analysis of the states that will be won by each of them: Abia-Jonathan, Adamawa- Buhari, Akwa Ibom-Jonathan, Anambra- Jonathan, Bauchi-Buhari, Bayelsa-Jonathan, Benue- Jonathan, Borno-Buhari, Cross River- Jonathan, Delta-Jonathan, Ebonyi-Jonathan, Edo-Jonathan, Ekiti-Jonathan, Enugu- Jonathan, Gombe-Buhari, Imo-Jonathan, Jigawa-Buhari, Kaduna-Buhari, Kano-Buhari, Katsina-Buhari, Kebbi-Buhari, Kogi- Jonanthan (under maybe), Kwara-Buhari, Lagos- Buhari, Nazarawa-Jonathan(under maybe), Niger- Buhari, Ogun-Buhari(under maybe), Ondo- Jonathan, Osun-Buhari, Oyo-Buhari(it would have been under maybe but the defection of Akala and Makinde from PDP has indirectly put APC in a better position in Oyo state), Plateau-Jonathan, Rivers-Jonathan, Sokoto- Buhari, Taraba- Jonathan, Yobe-Buhari and Zamfara-Buhari. I can bet it with anything that the error of the analysis is maximum of plus or minus 3states.The analysis up is about states where each candidate will have the higest score. The constitution requires the winner to have the simple majority of the votes cast and also scored 25% of votes cast in 2/3 of the states of the federation. I.e 24 states and FCT. Both candidates will fulfill the second condition but no one can boldly predict who among the two of them will fulfill the first condition i.e getting the simple majority of the votes cast because of the following reasons: According to INEC record of registered voters, North West 18,900,543 South West 14,296,163 North East 10,038,119 South South 8,937,053 North Central 7,675,363 and South East 7,028,560. Jonathan has his major supports in South South, South East and partly North Central. Buhari has North West, North East and partly South West as his support base. If registered voters of South South and South East are combined.....the number is not up to the number of registered voters in the North West alone. Secondly, majority of North West governors that would have helped Jonathan to penetrate the North West to some extent as we witnessed in 2011 election have joined the opposition party. Nevertheless, Jonathan will be able to penetrate the stronghold of Buhari more than how Buhari can penetrate to Jonathans stronghold. In conclusion, no amount of political strategy will make Jonathan to win majority of the votes cast in the North West, North East, Kwara and Niger in the North Central. Also no amount of political strategy will make Buhari to win in South South, South East and some states in North Central like Benue and Plateau. If Jonathan can win at least four states in the South West.....he will win but if Buhari wins majority of the votes in the Southwest....it means he is our next president come 2015. Also, none of the candidates will emerge because of how competent he is. The winner will win because of religion and tribal sentiments of the Nigeria citizens. Just little percentage of Nigeria Citizens will not put religion and ethnicity into consideration before voting. As we can all see what the country has turned to. If you commend Jonathan on anything, you will be tagged Jonathanian and if you criticize him on anything, you will be tagged APC member. Let us all vote for the candidate of our choice, let us all peacefully accept the outcome and if you see any opinion that is different from your own.....present a superior argument instead of resulting to insult. No politician worths your blood! I have a dream to see a better Nigeria. Kabirusaje 08088777820. sai buhari
Posted on: Tue, 23 Dec 2014 11:46:46 +0000
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