MARKET COMMENTARY by PAUL HANSEN Monday 14th July 2014: it it definitely getting lighter earlier!! The US only fell by 0.9% last week, after rising 0.2% on Friday (Nasdaq +0.4%). Europe was +0.2% (apparently no bailout needed for the Portugese bank in trouble) on Friday and London +0.3%. Asian shares are up for the first time in 5 days, with the Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng +0.5% (Tencent +1.2%) and Aussie +0.5% (Billiton +0.5%). Meanwhile the gold price has drifted down to $1330, after 6 weeks of moving up, while the maize price in the US hit a 4-year low on higher crop estimates… and Brent crude is down at $106.6 (from over $115 recently) as the threat of supply disruptions in the Middle East abates. The JSE All Share gained 0.3% on Friday, after 4 down days, with Financials up 0.7% and strength in some retailers and banks. New record highs, or new 2014 highs during the day, were Mr Price, Pallinghurst and Sappi. The SA Reserve Bank meets later this week. Some expect a small interest rate hike because of higher inflation, but STANLIB is calling for no hike for the rest of the year because of our economy and the lower oil price, amongst other things, although we do acknowledge that there is a 40% chance of a hike. The dollar is flat this morning at $1.36 to the euro (since Wednesday morning), and also almost identical versus the pound at $1.71 since then. The rand is slightly weaker at 10.74 today to the dollar from 10.71 on Friday morning, at 18.38 from 18.33 versus the pound, 14.60 to the euro from 14.55 and 10.10 versus the Aussie from 10.05. So all quiet there and it sounds like the NUMSA strike may be resolved this week (not too much of a gap between the parties now). The company in Aussie that our Woolies is wanting to take over voted 89.6% in favour of the buyout, which implies that the deal should be completed by 31st July; relief for all.
Posted on: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 09:39:49 +0000
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