MESSAGE TYPE: WARNING INCIDENT TYPE: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK INCIDENT DATE/TIME: Late 26 November 2013 through 28 November 2013 SOURCE: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY, NJ SUMMARY: A Hazardous Weather Outlook remains in effect from Tuesday through Thursday for all of New Jersey. Strong winds along with rain is anticipated with some snow possible in higher elevations. Tidal flooding is possible. IMPACT: Holiday travel conditions will be affected by the weather conditions in addition to the increased volume of traffic. Delays are anticipated via all modes of transportation (air, road, rail). Due caution should be exercised while traveling through the affected areas. Emergency Managers and other Key Partners, We are moving into a fairly active weather pattern. A cold front will move across the region early tonight. Expect colder temperatures on Saturday (10 to 15 degrees colder), along with blustery winds. Then expect even COLDER temperatures on Sunday, with highs only in the mid 20s far north and mid 30s south. By Monday morning, low temperatures could sink into the teens in many locations. These temperatures, combined with winds in the 25 to 35 mph range, will make conditions feel even colder, especially for this time of year. And with recent dry conditions, there is also threat of fire weather concerns on Sunday. The next weather concern could likely occur late Tuesday into Thanksgiving day as a noreaster may take shape. Gusty northeast winds and rain could hamper one of the busiest travel days of the year (Wednesday). Some snow is also possible in the higher elevations of eastern PA and northern NJ. The threat for flooding (coastal, inland small stream, and roadway) will need to be monitored as we get closer to the event. A briefing package is attached. We wanted to get this information out early heading into a weekend. The Executive Summary is as follows: •A nor’easter is possible from late Tuesday November 26th through Thanksgiving day, November 28th. Based on current model guidance, the most vulnerable time for the mid-Atlantic region will be from the early morning hours on Wednesday into the early hours of Thanksgiving morning. •As with all nor’easters, strong easterly winds and periods of heavy rain can be expected. With recent dry conditions, the probability of large stream and main stem river flooding is low. However, roadway and poor drainage flooding is possible depending on how much rain actually falls. •Some snow is possible with this storm, especially in the higher elevations of eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey. With the storm still at least four days away, specifics are impossible to provide at this time. •This storm is expected to affect the region in a favorable part of the lunar cycle, approximately halfway between the last full moon and the next new moon. However, tidal flooding is still possible depending on the eventual path and strength of the storm. Coastal Flood watches may be needed early next week. •The timing of this storm could not be worse, given the Thanksgiving holiday. Travel conditions will deteriorate late Tuesday night as strong onshore winds and rain move into the region. These condition will persist through Wednesday before gradually improving Thanksgiving morning. Delays can be expected regardless of the travel mode (air, road, rail). •Even before this nor’easter, the region will experience an arctic blast this weekend. Temperatures will decline on Saturday with blustery northwest winds. Then on Sunday, the cold will really be noticeable with high temperatures only in the mid 20s north and mid 30s south. Strong winds in the 25 to 35 mph range will make conditions feel even colder. The combination of strong winds and very dry air (low dewpoint temperatures) will elevate the fire weather threat on Sunday. •There is still uncertainty associated with this possible nor’easter. More detailed information will be available as the event unfolds. Additional briefing packages will be issued over the weekend. • Monitor the NWS website for updated information– erh.noaa.gov/phi/
Posted on: Fri, 22 Nov 2013 21:38:59 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015