Mercom forecasts global solar installations to reach approximately 54.5 GW in 2015 compared to about 47.5 GW in 2014. Although, we are expecting strong growth in 2014, there has been a lot of uncertainty surrounding the sector towards the end of the year, especially in the two largest markets, China and Japan, which will eventually decide the outcome of total installations. China China is forecast to install 13 GW in 2015 with a caveat that this could go up if installations disappoint in 2014. Market forecasts for China increased with the announcement of its 14 GW solar installation goal. Forecasts then declined as China reported a very weak first half and dropped its goal to 13 GW. There are conflicting reports from the ground that the 2014 installation goal will be missed by 2 or 3 GW while some indicate a strong final push towards meeting the goal. China’s installations in 2015 will depend on how 2014 ends. Most of the projects that did not make the 2014 deadline will be installed in 2015, making for a stronger 2015. An overly aggressive 8 GW distributed generation (DG) installation goal was responsible for most of the slowdown and the government addressed this by releasing detailed supportive policy guidelines that should show results in 2015. Japan Japan is forecast to be the second largest solar market in 2014 and 2015, but like China, Japan has also hit some roadblocks that could affect its installation totals between 2014 and 2015. PV installation in the first half of 2014 was about 4 GW and domestic shipments in the first three quarters of calendar year 2014 was a little over 7 GW. Mercom reported over a year ago in our September 2013 forecast that there were isolated instances of PV projects getting rejected due to grid stability issues. On September 24, 2014, Kyushu Electric shut-off renewable power connection to the grid along with similar reports of shut downs from Hokkaido Electric, Tohoku Electric, Shikoku Electric and Okinawa Electric, which has raised the level of uncertainty in the market and slowed demand for modules in the Chinese spot market. The extent of the impact on total installations in the short-term is unclear, but it is bound to be negative in the long-term. Japan’s grid is monopolized by 10 operators which behave as 10 separate local grids with almost no interconnection. These grids were built to transmit power from large mega power plants and not for smaller renewable energy projects. The current FiT in Japan for non-residential projects >10 kW is 32 yen (~$0.31)/kWh and residential projects
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 12:14:05 +0000
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