More lies from the eugenists in the cdc and Whitehouse exposed. Evidence that travel bans from deadly virus hot zones mitigate and stop the transmission and spread of the deadly virus. Basically the Whitehouse and cdc want Ebola to spread and infect as many people as possible in America and across the planet, theyre bio-terrorists. Fig. 3: Risk of EVD case importation Top 16 countries at risk of EVD case importation in the short term: (top) 1 September and (bottom) 22 September 2014. The risk is assessed as the probability that a country will experience at least one case importation by the corresponding date, conditional on not having imported cases prior to 21 August 2014. The dark blue and light blue bars represent the minimum and maximum probability estimates, respectively, according to different models of case detection during travel (see text). The orange area corresponds to the probability maximum assuming the Nigerian outbreak starts to follow the same dynamic of the other West African countries affected by the EVD epidemic. We report the rank of Nigeria as well, which has experienced already a case importation on 20 of July and indeed it ranks among the countries with the larger probability of case importation. ...... International spread The microsimulations generated by the selected models allow tracking the importation of EVD cases to other countries of the world from the West African countries affected by the outbreak. Concurrently to modeling the evolution of the EVD in the affected countries, our computational approach simulates the number of passengers traveling daily worldwide on each airline connection in the world. To quantify the risk of international spread, we consider the models selected with the multimodel selection approach to best represent the local EVD dynamic in West Africa and perform for each model 1,000 microsimulations. In each microsimulation, we monitor the arrival of EVD exposed individuals in countries across the world at a daily scale and estimate the probability of each country being invaded on 1 and 22 September 2014. These probabilities are conditional on the fact that no countries had confirmed EVD importation until 21 August 2014. We have also taken into account that Ivory Coast, Senegal, Guinea and Mauritania have closed their borders with the EVD affected area. Concerning Nigeria, we consider two scenarios: the first one in which the outbreak is contained, and one in which outbreak follows the same dynamic of EVD in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea. Furthermore, in assessing case importation by airline travel it is also important to consider if the EVD cases are detected during a connecting flight or at the final destination of the traveler. In our analysis we have implemented two different models: i) the EVD cases are identified after the first connecting flight; ii) the EVD cases are able to travel to their final destination. These models provide a minimum and maximum for the probability of case importation in each country, whose spread depends on whether the country’s transportation systems act as a traffic gateway or a destination hub. In Fig. 3 we report the top 15 countries plus Nigeria ranked according to their probability of case importation, conditional on the fact that they have not seen imported cases before August 21 (probability of case importation for countries not reported in the figure is available upon request to the authors). We also show the risk of importation for Nigeria. Although Nigeria has already received one case importation, it is relevant in supporting the obtained results to observe that it ranks as one of the countries with the largest probability of importation. It is possible to observe that the probability of importation is relatively small (
Posted on: Wed, 29 Oct 2014 11:51:52 +0000
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