Morning Update from Jeff: Tropical air mass working its way back into the region along with moisture from TS Odile. Various weather making systems will produce an extended period of unsettled wet weather across much of TX this week into the weekend. Surface trough along the TX coast will be moving slowly inland today with deep tropical moisture noted over much of the central and western Gulf of Mexico. Soundings from CRP, BRO, and LCH all recorded PWS above 2.0 inches as tropical moisture from both the Gulf and TS Odile spread across the state. There is no well defined surface focus (front) to organize rainfall with the exception of the surface trough laying along the coast with favorable speed convergence near this feature. Thus rainfall will be mainly daytime heating driven and fall into the usual pattern of coastal nocturnal development in the 200am to 600am period and then spreading inland between 700am and 1000am. TS Odile is currently moving up the Baja of Mexico this morning and has surprisingly maintained a well defined structure even while interacting with mountains upwards of 3000-5000 ft. Odile will be turning NNE and NE crossing the Gulf of California and then into the state of Arizona. A large shield of mid and high level moisture is peeling off Odile and spreading ENE across much of TX along with embedded energy ejecting outward from the decaying tropical system. Disturbances and additional moisture will only help to foster widespread rainfall and heavier rainfall across the state over the next 48-72 hours as Odile weakens. While this is typically a favorable fall flood setup for TX, the lack of a defined surface front however should negate training organized excessive rainfall. With that said PWS in the 2.0-2.2 inch range for the next several days will support high hourly rainfall rates on the order of 2-3 inches. HPC grids have a fairly widespread 1-2 inch bullseye over the central and SW sections of SE TX on Wednesday as a disturbance aloft interacts with the tropical plume. Rainfall amounts through the end of the week will likely average 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches or higher possible. Late in the weekend another cold front will approach from the north and likely pass through the region. Will need to be watching newly formed TS Polo off the MX west coast as this system could become entangled with the trough and front late in the weekend.
Posted on: Tue, 16 Sep 2014 12:50:13 +0000
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