Mr. Facts: How UPND Could Lose the Coming Election It has been a long time since I contributed an article to the Zambia Reports under the Mr. Facts Column. Since this column is about facts, I would like to state that as an individual, I really wanted Rupiah Banda (RB) to be the Presidential candidate for Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD). Reasons are many, but that is an article for another day but only to state that he is more unifying and not vengeful. Today however I would like to write on how I think the UPND can lose this election. To be fair, tomorrow I will write about how the PF can lose the coming election. It is a fact that late President Michael Sata’s leadership was quite divisive, whether we like it or not. He was responsible for introducing a type of regional politics whereby people from certain regions were perceived to be favoured by the executive, given all the cabinet jobs, given all the government contracts. This is what prompted the UPND under Hakainde Hichilema to regroup his party under the “Bantu Botatwe,” these being Tongas, Lenjes, Lambas and Northwesterners. The problem however was the coming on board of Maureen Mwanawasa. Maureen Mwanawasa is a very tribal person. She is the one who caused her late husband Levy Mwanawasa to have a bit of tribal tag. She now believes it is time for a non-Bemba inclined person to become President. She is the one responsible for rallying of all MMD Members of Parliament from Northwestern province and Copperbelt rural including Western Province. She is also behind the Masebo’s of Chongwe and Kenneth Chipungu of Rufunsa.This the reason why the UPND will do very well in rural Copperbelt were there are Lambas. However, this could be a miscalculation. Why do I say so? The answer is simple: whether we like it or not the population of non-Bantu Botatwe is more than all the Bantu Botatwe together. If you combined the number of voters in Southern, Western, Northwestern and central provinces, it will be far less than Luapula, Northern and Eastern province. The UPND’s approach therefore should have been national. Yes, there has been a little blending of the Mutati’s and Katele Kalumba, but could these people influence the voting pattern in Northern and Luapula, even with the coming on board of GBM? Look at the strategy they used: first they got all MMD MPs from Northwestern province then supported by General Masheke, Skechly Sacika, Charles Milupi, Michael Mabenga, Professor Lungwangwa, Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane (LOZI). When they were criticised, they spread a bit to Northern Province. With the endorsing of Edgar Lungu by Rupiah Banda, the Eastern Province will be quite dicey for the UPND. RB commands serious respect in the East so whatever inroads the UPND has been trying to make may be erased especially with Lameck Mangani on the UPND menu. I do not know what he has done, but Mangani is not liked in the East. He is like Wynter Kabimba in the PF – deeply unpopular. The reason why the PF chose Edgar Lungu as the candidate is because the Northerners and Luapula people get easily with Easterners. To cut the story short, if grassroots voters realise that the UPND has gained strength through mobilisation on regional voting, UPND will lose because once the non-Bantu Botatwe also regroup, they will outnumber the other group. I’m not being tribal, but these are facts. This is the more reason why HH has spent three quarters of his campaign time in non Bantu Botatwe areas because he knows his vote in Western, Northwestern and Southern is almost intact. This is the reason why also Edgar Lungu has also taken a lot of time to pacify where HH has punched holes. Without a doubt, there are many challenges and a difficult environment for the UPND to win this election under their present strategy. Tomorrow, we will take a look at the PF’s chances of winning or losing as well. zambiareports/2015/01/02/mr-facts-upnd-lose-coming-election/
Posted on: Fri, 02 Jan 2015 15:24:12 +0000
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