My tummy is upset due to perhaps cold weather plus monthly period plus food. anyhow; woke up early (2hours ago? Had 4 hours of sleep) checked FB and found useful conversations and articles. My top reads for the 27th of December; 1.) read the article on ceb by Ollie Segovia and the newyorker article by mr Wu re JetBlue and the us airline industry in general. Its posted in links below the feeds here. 2.) saw some 2015 previews of Alphen Alfred Yus and had an engaging conversation through the threads on consumer - read those threads.i talked about why I think max is a funda laggard and why technicals are good but also not justifiably worth the 40% rise YTD. Not really a bear on max per se just an opinion that the consumer sector of the casual dining space is a highly competitive and fragmented market where I just sometimes would likely avoid. I love chicken. Its just that I love savory aristocrat sincerity and so forth. You get the picture. I cant say I love max to the bones; I also understand its a highly diversified casual dining company- basically the industry isnt easy even if they want to expand abroad; fast food chains and casual space dining are different entities to me. One eats 3-4x a week. One hardly goes 1-2x a month. Turnovers are different between max and jFC. Why people think its the next jFC surprises me . Send me your funda report will read . But tech and funda and flows are up to you guys; Id rather sit with ipos I understand and like funda and tech (the 7.50-8.50 averages on SSI and X) Id just keep holding them. To begin with; I just think mostly about industries and then the companies inside. Food in general is a lucrative space but also highly competitive. Its 1-N business Peter thiel speak; I diverged and didnt much agree with Alphen and Alfred constructively on the retail space & told them to me retail is seasonal - I know that- but the trend for higher end goods is also not just a Christmas trend for me. Retail in Pinas is more monopolistic than competitive. We only have 5 large players in Pinas (sm rrhi lucio co Ayala and rustans) Compare to USA with cut throat competition - amazon online shopping is so convenient ayoko na mag lakad! - Best buy, walgreens, whole food, Ralphs, all the dollar stores (fdo,dg, Ross;99 cents) ,target and so forth. I explained why 7.50-9.00 was just all value to me; why the 50% rise is achievable (7.5+3.75 or 11.25) funny it matches with credit Suisse target of 11.30; but mine was just through inferential reading of what those branded stuffs are; you see Im part of this brooding sosyal market space in Pinas. Grabe spending for mga branded goods. Spent Christmas in USA and I saw lines filled up in Coach, Kate Spade, Tory Burch, Prada, Gucci, Ralph Lauren, Calvin Klein, Lacoste et al. Its not as cheap sa Pinas versus here kaya malamang dito grabe the lines of the Chinese mandarin peeps & the foreign tourists all wanting a bargain. Inherent tlga shopping culture sa Pinas. Saw many Filipinos shopping too. Rising economy goes hand in hand with rising consumer discretionary. The finer things in life are catered by SSI. We have pottery barn in Pinas na. Grabe I find it hard to imagine paying 200-300 dollar shoes sa Tods but it seems so easy for some. Or 500 dollar bags. Unlike pgold yes, its a lower revenue turnover market but thats the nature of the game. One must compare selling clothes on rustans versus selling sa nordstrom et al. IPO sector was hot. But I dont honestly think some can grow their businesses the way their stock prices did :) 3.) xurpas- the more I read technology- I dont claim omnipotence but I trust that the business model is that astounding (I can fall and fail 5-10m pesos everyday just to have 100m businesses in those Thailand and south East Asian markets) to deliver growth in excess of 70-100% cagr next 2-3 years starting since iPo. 2 years Lang nila introduce their casual gaming space and lakas Ng customer growth. Tel paying for rocket internet company startups like Zalora and Lazada is for me - fundamental growth driver Ng TEL in the future. Sana mag recommend purchase din xurpas or be the back end logistics PayPal of many retail entities in Pinas; the way they already do now for games and pasa load. Grabe the many possibilities. Yung sm store kaya na online - sino kaya doing the online payment dyan? I havent tried yet. Credit cards malamang kasi if youre purchasing goods may card ka naman. So I guess thats why xurpas really are prepaid wallet of low end only. Pwede na din. DNL was the back end of URc and grabe. Ung online purchasing natin infancy stage. It hasnt even began. Anyhow- lots of good articles to read. Check those South East Asian trends on techni Asia shared by nix nolledo. Useful to read.
Posted on: Sat, 27 Dec 2014 15:47:33 +0000
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