Mysterious negotiations with open road Nahed Hattar Three negotiating processes taking place on major files in the Middle East: (1) the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, (2) negotiations for Geneva on Syria, and (3) the Iranian-American negotiations. Haaretz newspaper relayed from israeli officials that they feel that the United States did not show an accurate picture of the concessions made by the Iranians in the framework of the deal. We can have the same feeling about the two deals on Syria and on Palestine; no one knows everything about what is happening, but we live in a climate of settlements. Start with the dark side, which is what happens in the Palestinian-israeli negotiations; today, who can answer whether the weaker Palestinian side accepted offering substantial concessions, or is still stubborn? Perhaps a cell of a limited membership is the one that knows an accurate picture of the size of those concessions. In any case, the information becomes less important, when considering the urgent need, in itself, for the Palestinian Authority to continue negotiations. It is clear that in the continuation of this, is an intrinsic Palestinian waiver , while enemy government continues to intensify the settlement project in an unprecedented manner. The Authority doesnt have any alternative but the acceptance of resignation, i.e. the solution to dissolve itself bt its own self. Which has become incompatible with the interests of a wide social and political groups. On the other hand, Hamas can not intercept more than uttering some shrieks that no one can hear; for they [Hamas] resigned, indeed, of the Palestinian cause, when it allowed itself to become a tool of the Muslim Brotherhood, against its nationalist sponor, Syria, and prioritising/-- the engagement in sectarian battles in the elSham country [Syria] as well as supporting and defending Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Hamas emerged out of these 2 war fronts losing and broken, without the realistic ability to save itself let alone defending causes? Indeed, the days of the Hamas rulein Gaza, are numbered; and once an understanding has been reached in principle on Oslo 2, the restoration of Ramallah to Gaza will be a must for the announcement of Oslo 2. The third party, on the deal, is the Kingdom of Jordan, which persevered to keep the so-called negotiations peace process alive, but once those negotiations have begun, information [about them] was interrupted and Amman, too, did not even have an accurate picture of what was happening. With no ability to veto deals, Amman fears those ones on the files of refugees and displaced persons, that do not take into account their interests as intangibility of borders, and economic and financial relationship with the West Bank. Washington sponsors Ramallah-Tel Aviv negotiations and is pushing to get a deal, but the israelis are pushing to grab everything, and do not accept less than full compliance agreement by the Authority, including the blessing of the settlement. It is impractical as the Americans realize, and even Us Foreign Affairs Secertary of State John Kerry warned of a third intifada! United States, being eager for a series of transactions in the Middle East to maintain its strategic interests, as it prepares to devote its full-time efforts to the Asian challenges, yet gets the best deals from adversaries Russians, Syrians and Iranians, while suffers from its allies, the israelis, the saudis and the French who, today, are blocking the american plans to create an umbrella of understandings in the region. What have Moscow & America agreed on? what are the trade-offs (other than the chemical file)? Is there anyone who knows exactly? Could it be Geneva2 versus Oslo 2 ? Is this the approach that Kerry is trying to convince netanyahu, while the latter thinks that in alliance with the saudi insurgency, hell receive whatever he wants from Palestinians and some of what he wants from Syria and the Iran? Saudi Arabia hinders -both throught its Syrian political tools or through its terrorist tools in Syria- a Russian/ American settlement. Can it? Of course, it can cause more pain to the Syrian people, but it will be subjected, in the end, to the settlement imposed and will be imposed by the [battlefield] facts; for the main forces in Syria now, are not the regime and the opposition, but the Syrian Arab Army and terrorist organized bodies of terrorists agreed [with the 2 big powers] to finish them off, thus the regime has received an international recognition not only for its survival but also, in turn, in through the fight against terrorism on behalf of the two 2 biggest powers. Saudi Arabias european partner is in crisis too, having been excluded in presence and in his role in what he considers his previous mandate territory, Syria; the French is trying to hinder and delay Us overeagerness to make a deal with the Iranians, established, as announced by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, on the basis of subsequentness and agreeability, i.e. not as the israelis want on the basis of totalitarian rule under threat; a final agreement dismantling Irans nuclear capabilities, or a declaration of war on Iran. Iran is not an interest, and will not accept a final and comprehensive agreement, but it is proposing a safe a framework that allows the international community to be assured that it does not intend to produce a nuclear weapon against lifting the sanctions and to have each subsequent step in a friendly framework. This is the meaning of subsequentness and agreeability. Its a framework that is accepted by Washington that wants, in turn, to ensure Irans realistic preoccupation away from the course of the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, and to reach understandings on Syria, Lebanon and Bahrain. The United States is ready to make substantial concessions in the three files, on the basis of subsequentness and agreeability. Its a winning base for the Russian-Iranian-Syrian axis everywhere, except Palestine. The problem, here, is not the axis possibility of abandonment of the Palestinians, but the lack of a Palestinian political leverage which enables Palestinians to take advantage of the climate of the American withdrawal from the region. There is a feeling among everyone that the road of regional settlements is open. Perhaps this is the feeling that is losing the Saudis any political rationale, and is pushing them toward a range of counter-alliances that would disastrously backfire on the Kingdom, its security and its role, whether with the terrorists or with israel or with the colonial caricature, France.
Posted on: Mon, 11 Nov 2013 20:20:46 +0000
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