NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING ENEWD THROUGH THE SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH SRN END LIKELY TO STALL OVER THE NRN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NERN ND OR NWRN MN SWWD INTO NRN SD AND NERN WY. LEE TROUGH WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTH FROM NERN CO THROUGH NEB AND ERN SD. ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS... ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY OVER NRN ND...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NRN MN. SOUTH OF ONGOING STORMS...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG MOIST AXIS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS...ERN NEB INTO A PORTION OF MN. WARM AIR ALOFT ATTENDING THE EWD EXPANDING EML PLUME SHOULD CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER A PORTION OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO...WY AND SRN MT AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE DEEPLY MIXED AIR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG MUCH OF COLD FRONT MIGHT REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED /ESPECIALLY WITHIN AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY/ GIVEN STRONG CAP AND POTENTIAL FOR MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS. INITIATION WILL BE MORE PROBABLE ALONG PORTION OF LEE TROUGH FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR WEST OF MOIST AXIS. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS. STORMS /MOST LIKELY ELEVATED/ MAY PERSIST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ AS WELL AS FARTHER WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST IF SFC BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. GIVEN POTENTIAL CAPPING ISSUES...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
Posted on: Thu, 11 Jul 2013 11:45:06 +0000
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