OK so Im not going to state a big Senate prediction here. Honestly, after hours on end of combing through data, Im forced to conclude tomorrows outcome is completely unpredictable. That said, I will throw out a number based on what I think is most likely as it stands tonight, about 24 hours before well actually have enough results to begin seeing how its all going to end. GOP: 52 -- Dems: 48 (Dem total includes Is since they typically align with Dems anyway) I could be wrong, of course. Way wrong. I think the east coast battles are going to tell us a LOT about how the night will go as the time zones advance. If New Hampshire and/or North Carolina go GOP (looks like they wont) then Dems are in huge trouble. Even if GOP grabs just NC Dems are in trouble. If Dems take NC and NH, then win one or two out of Iowa, Arkansas and Louisiana... the GOP is in trouble. I think the chances are strong Louisiana goes into a runoff, though. I also think if the night doesnt go strong for GOP, Louisiana could be the deciding race in a December runoff. And that race could tie the Senate depending on what happens in Colorado and Alaska. (Making Biden the tipping vote in the Senate) In any event, Ive covered a lot of elections and as a data/election geek this might be the most interesting/intriguing of them all. Will be quite a ride tomorrow, thats for sure!
Posted on: Tue, 04 Nov 2014 03:52:54 +0000