Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. UPDATED 2013 Oct 9 1230 UTC .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was moderate (R1-Minor). Region 1865 (S20E73, Dao/beta) produced an M2 x-ray flare at 09/0148 UTC with associated Type II/IV radio sweep activity. The region appears to be moderately complex, particularly in the trailer spot complex, although its proximity to the limb is hindering a complete analysis. Small B-class and C-class flares also occurred in Regions 1856 (N07W10, Cao/beta) and 1861 (S13E50, Bxo/beta). A large filament located near N40E80-N25E30 erupted at about 08/2100 UTC. Complete coronagraph data were not yet available for CME analysis but the bulk of the resulting ejecta is expected to be directed mostly away from the Earth to the northeast. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare in Region 1865 during the period (Oct 9-11). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels during the period (Oct 9-11) with a chance for high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels during the period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... ACE data indicated an interplanetary shock arrival at approximately 08/1337 UTC with significant increases in solar wind parameters and fluctuations of the IMF Bz component to -15 nT. Following the shock passage, solar wind speed has been steady at around 600 km/s, IMF Bt near 15 nT, and Bz near -4 nT. .Forecast... CME effects are expected to persist during Oct 9 then gradually subside. Analysis is inconclusive as to whether the current effects are from the CME associated with the Oct 6 filament eruption or a different, undetected CME. If they are separate events, then the CME from the filament eruption on Oct 6 is expected to arrive late on Oct 9. Solar wind conditions are expected to be influenced beginning on Oct 11 due to the onset of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels until around 08/2023 UTC, then rapidly increased to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) by 08/2024 UTC. The activity increase followed a geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) at 08/1941 UTC (62 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) during the first half of Oct 9, followed by quiet to active levels through Oct 10 due to persistent CME effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on Oct 11 as a CH HSS begins to disturb the field.
Posted on: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 13:29:41 +0000
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