Probability of a long duration and powerful coastal storm impacting the region continues to increase. All of the cold air has been fully eroded from the region leaving us with all rain and improving road conditions. Rain will continue at times throughout the day before tapering off as some wet snow as temps drop back into the 20s overnight. Overnight the we saw more of the forecasting models come inline with the idea that a Nor Easter will impact the region next week. As usual the GFS model is last to the party and continues still to be an outlier with a off shore track and unimpressive moisture field. Basically all remaining forecast models show a low pressure system develop on Monday somewhere along the NC,DE,VA coast and rapidly deepen as it heads NE. These models also depict that the storm becomes cutoff a basically stall near NYC before slowly departing NE wall spinning itself out of moisture. While we have great consensus on the fact that we will be dealing with a coastal storm from Monday night through Wednesday, and that it will be a rather deep storm with lots of moisture. We have a less than hazy idea on the thermal dynamics with this storm. We will not have the classic set up of a cold arctic airmass in place, couple this with the fact that some model are taking this storm very close to the coast and we have a scenario where temps at both the surface and at the clouds will be a crucial detail to how this storm plays out. There will be cold enough air in place when the storm arrives early Tuesday to support snow. The question remains on how much holding power the cold air will have. If the storm tracks very close to the coast with a very slow forward speed, the cold air with have to endure 24 hours of easterly winds which will help to drive warm marine air in off the Atlantic and erode the cold air out. This scenario will lead to a period of heavy wet snow that changes to a heavy wind driven rain that eventually ends as snow as the storm departs and cold air spills back in its wake. If the storm tracks further east, the cold air will be able to hold its ground much longer and our region will see a long duration, wind driven snowstorm. These are the details that we will be hoping to iron out over the next 24-48 hours, please stay tuned and be aware that this storm may have large impacts on our region. On a side note, its important to note that this storm has all the makings for a very significant Catskills snowfall. In either scenario it would appear that the higher terrain of the Catskills may be measuring snow in feet. Please visit the website for even more details into this storm potential, including some model images. We will be updating frequently as more information becomes available. Have a great day and stay dry! hudsonvalleyweather
Posted on: Sat, 06 Dec 2014 14:23:35 +0000
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