Raila will Triumph in a Referendum! Premier Raila Odinga will ‘win’ in a referendum if it happens. He has what it takes to tell people, many of whom will not much want to read into why the referendum is being held and say, “Raila has read it and told us this is good, this is bad, that’s it”!! There are a number of calls or reasons underpinning the need for a referendum. It started with Senators after they felt the President declined to take in their input on the division of revenue Bill an issue currently before the Supreme Court. CORD saw the opportunity and apart from supporting it stating it proves the government is against devolution, came in with their parliamentary system call and an electoral college. Now Jubilee also want it to bar Raila in the 2017 elections by having a limit for anyone wanting to run for office to be below 70 years. The first reason has many merits. I think it will help bring to an end the ego fights in parliament albeit national assembly members will certainly start another fight to ensure they triumph. Those from CORD will not assist them much because the system will still rig them out through bribing and intimidating either parliamentarians or electoral college members. The Jubilee one is quite desperate and myopic. It is against Article 27 as it will entail discrimination based on age. Someone could argue that civil servants are already discriminated as they are required to retire at 60. That is not the constitution, but an administrative arrangement subject to a challenge in a court of law. No one has yet to do this. A good challenge will be the constitutional requirement that Judges have an age limit of 70. But again, the courts can and will shed light when and if such a challenge is brought before the bench. The reasons for this propositions are that Raila will triumph are a number. For the record, by him winning does not mean Kenyans have won or they are at a better state. If anything it gives him good impetus for 2017 elections, something which Jubilee will not want to entertain albeit they can and will still rig him out if he is on the ballot. First, history vindicates the man. The 2005 and 2010 referendums are good examples of how the man delivered the vote. Seems Kenyans trust him with issues but not with leadership. A lose interpretation which can be challenged though!! Secondly, Jubilee is increasingly polarizing the country. The rhetoric by President Kenyatta that his main aim is to unite the country has so far been epic. Pure talk. Even the slimmest of perception through giving top jobs to people of diverse ethnicity has been below par. It is the same system rewarding the same people. Perhaps it is rewarding them for giving it power. Then again, this is Kenya. Thirdly, the country is divided. Kenya has yet to heal from the 2007 elections. What the 2013 elections were to continue cementing some stereotypes and prejudices and hate a majority ethnic communities of the country have. So this will be for them to tell the establishment something, a message will certainly be delivered. Fourthly, fellow has the time: Jubilee folks headed by Uhuru and Ruto are busy with steering the country to a certain direction and also the weighty ICC cases against them. Hardly any of their lieutenants has the power, influence and charisma to take over the campaign. Many of the elected representatives will lose or could not have won the election were they in a different political party. Raila has been politically active for 30 years and went into the March 4, 2013 elections without a plan B. He therefore needs to continue creating relevance in the political psyche of the country and will do it, “with no strings attached.” The best thing for Jubilee government is to try not have a referendum at all. If they do, they are enticing more rift in running the country. They could have quite a divided one like President Kibaki in his second term. They have the resources and numbers in various critical institutions like parliament and intelligence to frustrate the efforts. @oleshitemi
Posted on: Fri, 16 Aug 2013 08:57:40 +0000
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