Review prediksi NFP dari beberapa bigboys... GS: US Non-Farm Payrolls: 125K, US Unemployment Rate: 6.5%. BofA: We expect another sluggish jobs report in February with nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000. We forecast the unemployment rate to hold steady at 6.6%, but see risk of a decline from falling labor force participation. Barclays: After two months of soft payroll growth, we expect the headline NFP to grow by 150K and the unemployment rate to edge lower to 6.5% (consensus: 150K, 6.6%). BNPP: Our economists expect an on-consensus 150k result, but with USD positioning believed to pretty light heading into the release, the USD should be able to benefit if the data meets or beats our estimate CS: After a woeful December and January, when payrolls averaged just 94K, we expect some pick-up in February. Such a result would still be below the 12-month trend of 187K. The ice and snow storms, which blanketed a large swathe of the country in the February payroll survey period, are a downside risk to construction jobs. In the Household Survey, we expect the unemployment rate to decline to 6.5% from 6.6%. Nomura: Our economists expect a lower than consensus NFP print on Friday (120k vs. 150k on Bloomberg). This forecast includes a 15k downward revision from their initial call of a 135k increase, reflecting the weak ISM non-manufacturing and ADP employment report for February. Furthermore, our economists believe weather should remain a drag on the labor market, estimating that the adverse weather probably reduced private payroll employment by about 70k in February. Our economists are also forecasting a drop in unemployment rate to 6.5% and should cause the FOMC to strike the 6.5% UR threshold from its forward guidance. Overall, Nomura’s view is below consensus, and from the strategy side we see downside risk even for our economists’ forecast. Credit Agricole: Our nonfarm payrolls forecast looks for a 135K gain in February with the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.6%. In February’s Household Survey, we look for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 6.6%. Employment gains will likely remain positive, though we expect at a more moderate pace following Januarys 638K employment gain. We anticipate that employment gains will be offset by a similar increase in the size of the labor force. Danske: The main release today is US non-farm payrolls. We look for a rise of 145,000 but theestimate is extra uncertain currently due to the weather effect. Data has generally beensoft recently which points to a weak number. But on the other hand the starting pointis already low from January’s payrolls and it could give some payback effect inFebruary. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 6.6%.
Posted on: Fri, 07 Mar 2014 12:16:11 +0000
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